For the past two years, global growth outcomes and prospects have steadily deteriorated, while investment growth has collapsed. This is particularly the case in Europe. This column argues that reducing policy uncertainty, rethinking fiscal policy, and acting vigorously to address the challenges raised by digitalisation, climate change, and persistent inequalities all have the potential to reverse the current slippery trend and lift investment and living standards.
Productivity and Innovation
With more frequent and severe natural disasters, demand is growing for governments to support affected firms in their recovery. This column investigates the impact of subsidies after the Great East Japan Earthquake. It finds that capital subsidies were effective for the retail sector, but not in the manufacturing or other service sectors. The results suggest that the heterogeneity comes from variations in the degree of private support across sectors rather than variations in supply chain disruption.
In most advanced economies, both real long-term interest rates and productivity growth have decreased since the early 1990s. The column demonstrates how a circular relationship links these two indicators. Until there is a technology shock, the relationship will converge to an equilibrium in which growth and interest rates are both low.
An increasing number of goods and services employ AI-related technology. But for most consumers, determining which products use artificial intelligence remains a challenge. This column suggests that the spread of new technology may be delayed when information about it is difficult to communicate, and argues that standards governing artificial intelligence labelling can help to both educate consumers and promote the technology’s dissemination.
Consumer goods prices systematically depend on product age. This column analyses this dependence and shows that relative prices tend to fall during the product lifecycle. It uses insights from a sticky price framework to demonstrate how these price trends matter for aggregate inflation and the optimal inflation rate
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12 - 14 December 2019 / National University of Singapore (NUS) / National University of Singapore (NUS)
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8 - 8 January 2020 / Amsterdam / SUERF and DNB
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18 - 19 January 2020 / University of Warwick, Coventry / University of Warwick
