The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights from Economics, Politics, and Law

Simon Evenett 15 April 2010




Executive Summary
Simon J. Evenett

SECTION 1: What’s at stake? The clash that could have been...and could still be

1. Correcting the Chinese exchange rate: an action plan
C. Fred Bergsten

2. A trade war is entirely unnecessary
Yu Yongding

SECTION 2: Recent developments concerning the renminbi-dollar exchange rate

3. What caused China’s current-account surplus?
Yiping Huang

4. Congress and Chinese currency legislation
Claude Barfield

SECTION 3: The renminbi and global imbalances

5. Is an undervalued renminbi the source of global imbalances?
Charles Wyplosz

6. A trade theorist’s take on global imbalance
Alan V. Deardorff

SECTION 4: How much does the renminbi need to appreciate? To what effect?

7. The renminbi since 2005
Jeffrey Frankel

8. Is China’s currency overvalued?
Helmut Reisen

9. New PPP-based estimates of renminbi undervaluation and policy implications
Arvind Subramanian

10. Measuring misalignment: Latest estimates for the Chinese renminbi
Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D Chinn and Eiji Fuji

11. The 2005 to 2008 appreciation of the yuan and US trade
Peter K. Schott

12. Impact of China’s exchange-rate policy on trade in Asia
Alicia García-Herrero and Tuuli Koivu

SECTION 5: Does the crisis-era renminbi regime violate WTO rules? Is the threat of WTO litigation credible?

13. Currency ‘manipulation’ and world trade: a caution
Robert W. Staiger and Alan O. Sykes

14. Currency undervaluation as a violation of GATT Article XV:4
Jorge Miranda

15. Yuan to fight about it? The WTO legality of China’s exchange regime
Joel P. Trachtman

16. Retaliating against exchange rate manipulation under WTO rules
Michael Waibel

17. Is the Chinese exchange-rate regime ‘WTO-legal’?
Dukgeun Ahn

18. China's currency regime is legitimately challengeable as a subsidy under ASCM rules
John Magnus and Timothy C. Brightbill

SECTION 6: Potential responses by industrialised countries

19. Deconstructing Sino-US codependence: revaluation, tariffs, exports and jobs
Joseph Francois

20. US policy approaches to Chinese currency
Philip I. Levy

21. Is the 1971 ‘import surcharge’ a useful precedent?
Simon J. Evenett

22. What should the US and China learn from the past US-Japan conflict?
Jenny Corbett and Takatoshi Ito

23. Should Europe join the US in condemning Chinese currency manipulation?
Patrick A. Messerlin

24. China: revisiting the issue of mercantilism
François Godement

SECTION 7: Potential responses by China

25. Beijing blinks first – the currency debate in diplomatic context
Andrew Small

26. Great expectations: (Competing) domestic drivers of Chinese policy deliberations
Shaun Breslin

27. Absent revaluation, retaliation? Reactions to US restrictions on Chinese exports
Kati Suominen


China's holdings of US government debt: A dagger pointed at the heart of the US economy?
Eswar Prasad

Professor of International Trade, University of St. Gallen; Research Fellow, CEPR


CEPR Policy Research