Towards a Workable and Effective Climate Regime

Scott Barrett , Carlo Carraro, Jaime de Melo 10 November 2015

This year, for the first time ever, nearly all of the world’s countries are making pledges to help limit future climate change. As of 1 October, 147 countries (representing about 85% of global emissions) have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. These pledges, if carried out in full, are expected to lower emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ forecast. However, they are not expected to prevent emissions from increasing above today’s level through 2030. To meet the global goal of limiting mean global temperature change to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, much more will need to be done after 2030. Eventually, emissions will have to fall to zero worldwide – either that, or countries will need to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. This new Vox eBook looks into what needs to be done to build a climate regime that is both workable and effective.

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List of Abbreviations viii

Acknowledgements x

Foreword xi

Introduction [2] 1
Scott Barrett, Carlo Carraro and Jaime de Melo

PART I: The Challenge [3]

Implications of climate science for negotiators [4] 31
Thomas F. Stocker

Beyond the 2°C limit: Facing the economic and institutional challenges [5] 49
Ottmar Edenhofer, Susanne Kadner, Christoph von Stechow and Jan Minx

The state of climate negotiations [6] 69
Brian P. Flannery

PART II: Views from Different Parts of the World [7]

A view from Africa [8] 85
Alemu Mekonnen

A view from China [9] 99
Teng Fei

A view from India [10] 107
E. Somanathan

The view from different parts of the world: A view from Japan [11] 115
Mitsutsune Yamaguchi and Keigo Akimoto

A view from Europe [12] 131
Roger Guesnerie

A view from the United States [13] 143
Matthew J. Kotchen

PART III: Architecture and Governance [14]

Legally binding versus non-legally binding instruments [15] 155
Daniel Bodansky

Comparing emission mitigation pledges: Metrics and institutions [16] 167
Joseph E. Aldy and William A. Pizer

Towards an effective system of monitoring, reporting, and verification [17] 183
Jonathan B. Wiener

After the failure of top-down mandates: The role of experimental governance in climate change policy [18] 201
Robert O. Keohane and David G. Victor

A building blocks strategy for global climate change [19] 213
Richard B. Stewart, Michael Oppenheimer and Bryce Rudyk

Climate change policies and the WTO: Greening the GATT, revisited [20] 225
Petros C. Mavroidis and Jaime de Melo

PART IV: Policy Options [21]

The regulatory approach in US climate mitigation policy [22] 239
Dallas Burtraw

Pricing carbon: The challenges [23] 251
Thomas Sterner and Gunnar Köhlin

Taxing carbon: Current state of play and prospects for future developments [24] 267
Xueman Wang and Maja Murisic

Linkage of regional, national, and sub-national policies in a future international climate agreement [25] 283
Robert N. Stavins

Options for avoiding carbon leakage [26] 297
Carolyn Fischer

PART V: Technology Options [27]

International cooperation in advancing energy technologies for deep decarbonisation [28] 315
Michael Toman

The role of renewables in the pathway towards decarbonisation [29] 327
Valentina Bosetti

Carbon capture and storage: Promise or delusion? [30] 343
Massimo Tavoni

The alternatives to unconstrained climate change: Emission reductions versus carbon and solar geoengineering [31] 353
Scott Barrett and Juan Moreno-Cruz

PART VI: Burden Sharing and Development [32]

Poverty and climate change: Natural disasters, agricultural impacts and health shocks [33] 369
Stephane Hallegatte, Mook Bangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg, David Treguer and Adrien Vogt-Schilb

Policy options in low-income countries: Achieving socially appropriate climate change response objectives [34] 391
Alice Akinyi Kaudia

REDD+: What should come next? [35] 405
Arild Angelsen

Curbing carbon without curbing development [36] 423
Paul Collier

Towards resilient and low-carbon cities [37] 435
Anthony G. Bigio

Meaningful technology development and transfer: A necessary condition for a viable climate regime [38] 451
Heleen de Coninck and Shikha Bhasin

PART VII: Climate Finance [39]

The macroeconomics of climate policy: Investments and financial flows [40] 467
Emanuele Massetti

Pros and cons of alternative sources of climate change financing and prospects for ‘unconventional finance’ [41] 483
Barbara Buchner and Jane Wilkinson

Harnessing the animal spirits of finance for a low-carbon transition [42] 497
Jean-Charles Hourcade

Measuring vulnerability to climate change for allocating funds to adaptation [43] 515
Patrick Guillaumont