Christopher Knittel, 11 October 2018

Jeffrey Frankel, 04 September 2018

Lee Branstetter, Britta Glennon, J. Bradford Jensen, 21 August 2018

US firms have begun shifting R&D investment towards non-traditional destinations such as China, India, and Israel. The column argues that this is a response to a shortage in software and IT-related human capital within the US. When US multinationals are able to import talent or export R&D work, this reinforces US technological leadership. Conversely, politically engineered constraints on this response will undermine the competitiveness of US-based firms.

Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, Petr Sedláček, 18 July 2018

Growth and employment in the US have been robust over the past 18 months, and President Trump frequently takes personal credit for these trends. This column explores how the US economy would have evolved without Trump. An analysis shows no difference between the post-election performance of the US economy under Trump and a synthetic ‘doppelganger’ US economy without Trump, suggesting that there has been no ‘Trump effect’.  

Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby, Tom Nicholas, 27 March 2017

The impact of immigration on US economic development has become a controversial issue in recent policy debates. This column, arising from a study linking Federal Census data with patent records, examines the historical role of immigrant inventors in the process of US technological innovation. Immigrant inventors appear to have been of central importance to American innovation during the 19th and 20th centuries, both through their own inventive activity and through their influence on domestic inventors.

Ethan Ilzetzki, Jonathan Pinder, 20 October 2012

The US economy is struggling out of its deepest recession since the 1930s. In this climate, economic policy promises made by the presidential candidates are critical. This column reviews the facts on the state of the US economy, and how it got there, before reviewing the candidates’ promises. Given the monumental challenges, the lack of policy detail from the candidates is worrying.

Robert J. Gordon, 22 August 2011

The US is missing millions of jobs. This column argues that the total is 10.4 million. It claims that 3 million of these can be traced to the weakened bargaining position of labour and the growing assertiveness of management in slashing costs to maintain share prices. Moreover, this employment gap is not shrinking because of the ‘double hangover’ effect—an excess housing supply and besieged consumers unwilling to spend.

Michelle Alexopoulos, Jon Cohen, 23 December 2008

This column claims that uncertainty shocks affect on economic activity with remarkable swiftness, strength, and durability. Capturing expectations of average citizens in Main Street through the use of keywords in main newspapers, it indicates a modest decline of uncertainty since October 2008, suggesting that the worst may be behind us.

Peter Auer, Raphael Auer, Simon Wehrmüller, 21 November 2008

What is causing the mass US layoffs, decreased demand or more expensive financing? This column presents new research showing that two-thirds of the variation in employment across companies is due to their varying dependence on credit. In short, cheap capital is important for employment.

Edward Lazear, 12 September 2008

At the Global Economic Symposium in Schleswig-Holstein in September 2008, Edward Lazear – economics professor at Stanford University and currently chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers – delivered a speech on the performance of the US economy over the past ten years. Afterwards, he recorded an interview with Romesh Vaitilingam.

Gary Hufbauer, Matthew Adler, 24 July 2008

A popular headline figure quantifying the US payoff from globalisation at $1 trillion per year has been criticised by Dani Rodrik and other sceptics. Here is an explanation and defence of the Peterson Institute’s big number.

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