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Thursday 28th January, 2021
07:00-08:30 ET (Washington)
12:00-13:30 GMT (London)
13:00-14:30 CET (Geneva)

Although global economic output is recovering from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, it will remain below pre-pandemic trends for a prolonged period. Until the pandemic is brought under control around the world, the recovery will be subdued and may get derailed by several risks. In particular, the pandemic has exacerbated the risks associated with a decade-long wave of global debt accumulation. It is also likely to steepen the long-expected slowdown in potential growth over the next decade unless a major policy push for growth is made in many countries.

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Menzie Chinn, Hiro Ito, 21 November 2019

Global imbalances have reappeared, somewhat transformed, and relocated. Using data from developing and industrialised countries covering 1972-2016, this column shows that fiscal factors, rather than savings glut variables, have accounted for a noticeable share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the US and Germany. The contribution of demographic factors is large for industrialised countries but not for emerging markets. Net official flows shape global imbalances in both developing and industrialised countries. 

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