Successfully predicting which startups will thrive has long bedevilled economists. Using data from procurement auctions in Norway, this column finds that temporary demand shocks have long-term effects: startups that win a procurement auction are 20% larger than the runners-up, even years after the contract work has ended. In terms of job creation and sales growth, winning a procurement auction seems to have much larger effects for startups than for mature firms, which suggests the potential value in public policies that promote startups’ participation in government procurement auctions.