Kris Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina, 04 May 2017

Fixed exchange-rate regimes reduce uncertainty, which may increase trade and encourage investment and capital flows. This column identifies and tests one reason why markets expect countries to abandon pegs and devalue their currencies – shocks to the value of their output. During the classical gold standard era, commodity price fluctuations determined expected devaluation by investors, as measured by currency risk. These results highlight how trade shocks in an integrated world may undermine fixed exchange rate regimes under limited fiscal adjustments.

Jon Danielsson, 18 January 2015

The Swiss central bank last week abandoned its euro exchange rate ceiling. This column argues that the fallout from the decision demonstrates the inherent weaknesses of the regulator-approved standard risk models used in financial institutions. These models under-forecast risk before the announcement and over-forecast risk after the announcement, getting it wrong in all states of the world.

Jeffrey Frankel, 29 July 2008

In CEPR Policy Insight No. 25, Jeffrey Frankel discusses the merits of a peg to the export price for countries specialized in the production of a mineral or agricultural commodity.

The Editors, 29 July 2008

This column introduces Jeffrey Frankel’s Policy Insight No. 25 explaining his proposal for countries to peg their currencies to their export prices. Such a peg adjusts to trade shocks and serves as a nominal anchor, so it may outperform current exchange rate regimes.

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