Jennifer Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik, David Hendry, 24 April 2020

While models based on well-established theoretical understanding and available evidence are crucial to viable policymaking in observational-data disciplines, shifts in distributions can lead to systematic mis-forecasting. This column argues that there is an important role for short-term forecasts using adaptive data-based models that are `robust’ after distributional shifts, and discusses an approach to doing so for the Covid-19 pandemic.

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