The major disruptions to global value chains caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have prompted politicians to think about reducing the reliance on imported inputs by decoupling from global value chains. This column quantifies the welfare costs of decoupling as well as the potential gains from reduced exposure to foreign shocks. The bottom line is that decoupling does not pay off.
Peter Eppinger, Gabriel Felbermayr, Oliver Krebs, Bohdan Kukharskyy, 07 July 2021
Philipp Hartmann, Glenn Schepens, 12 May 2021
The 2020 ECB Forum on Central Banking addressed some key issues from the ongoing monetary policy strategy review and embedded them in discussions of major structural changes in advanced economies and the post-COVID recovery. In this column, two of the organisers highlight some of the main points from the papers and debates, including whether globalisation is reversing, implications of climate change, options for formulating the ECB's inflation aim, challenges with informal monetary policy communication, relationships between financial stability and monetary policy, how to make a monetary policy framework robust to deflation or inflation traps and the role of fiscal policy for the recovery from the pandemic.
Swati Dhingra, Rebecca Freeman, Hanwei Huang, 21 January 2021
Deep trade agreements are widespread and have taken the world beyond tariff liberalisation in goods trade. As the importance of global supply chains and the services sector increased across the world, shallow tariff reductions gave way to deeper commitments that address non-tariff barriers and behind the border barriers to trade. By matching dissagregated trade data to the universe of deep trade agreements, this column examines their impact on trade in goods and services, and quantifies their welfare impacts. Welfare gains from the commitments involved in such agreements have played a crucial role in overall welfare gains since the conclusion of the Uruguay Round.
Douglas Irwin, 05 May 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has led policymakers and business leaders to question whether global supply chains have been stretched too far. This column argues that the pandemic simply adds further momentum to the deglobalisation trend. The fourth era of globalisation appears to have peaked in 2008, and since then we have been in an era of ‘slowbalisation’.
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