Antonio Ciccone, Adilzhan Ismailov, 17 May 2020

Persistence of democratisation following transitory economic shocks plays an important role in the theory of political institutions. This column tests the theory of democratic tipping points using rainfall shocks in the world’s most agricultural countries since 1946. Negative rainfall shocks have a strong and transitory effect on agricultural output, but a persistent positive effect on the probability of democratisation even after ten years. These findings suggest that even if it were short-lived, the COVID-19 crisis is likely to tip the scales against some authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratisation.



CEPR Policy Research