Richard Bluhm, Maxim Pinkovskiy, 06 June 2020

The prospect that BCG – a vaccine used primarily against tuberculosis – might offer protection from COVID-19 has become an understandably popular hypothesis. This column finds that hope misplaced. The authors exploit a natural experiment, overlaying the large difference in BCG vaccination rates with the large differences in COVID-19 infection rates between the former East and West Germany. They find that the differences are attributable not to BCG, but to the West’s copious commuter flow patterns and the fact that the epidemic arrived there first.

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