Antonio Fatás, 27 October 2021

In 2019, the US economy had reached levels of employment that ensured that the gains of the economic expansion were shared across many segments of the labour market. Unfortunately, the benefits of this high-pressure economy were short-lived thanks to the recession that started in March 2020. This column argues that this pattern fits all previous US cycles. Expansions end too early to allow for long periods of stable and low unemployment. 

Daron Acemoğlu, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell, Pascual Restrepo, 03 March 2021

As artificial intelligence technologies improve rapidly, there is increasing interest in the effects on workers. This column uses data on skill requirements in US vacancies posted since 2010 to examine the impact of artificial intelligence on the US labour market. While the estimates suggest that AI has started to replace workers in certain tasks, it does not yet seem to be having effects on the aggregate labour market.

Robert Hall, Marianna Kudlyak, 24 June 2020

The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to job loss of catastrophic proportions in the United States. This column looks at recoveries from recessions over past 70 years to assess how the US labour market might recover from this job loss of unprecedented magnitude. Remarkably consistent recoveries have occurred in the US after every recessionary shock that caused a spike in unemployment, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery from the current shock will be more rapid, because unemployment contains a much larger fraction of workers on temporary layoff than in previous recoveries. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the possible recovery rate.

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