Uwe Sunde, Dominic Rohner, Andrea Berlanda, 02 August 2022

The death toll from HIV/AIDS in Africa would be a lot higher today were it not for the impact of anti-retroviral therapies. But as well as saving countless lives, have these drugs also reduced conflict?

Rede more bout this research and download the free DP:
Berlanda, A, Cervellati, M, Esposito, E, Rohner, D and Sunde, U. 2022. 'Medication Against Conflict'. 

Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva, 29 July 2022

Analysis of large-scale conflicts over the past 30 years can shed light on the range of possible economic outcomes for Ukraine. This column shows that, in general, the impact on GDP is very large, persisting even ten years after conflict onset, and affects all sectors of the economy. This is overwhelmingly driven by declines in private consumption and official trade. In addition, large-scale conflicts often lead to persistent long-term refugee outflows to both neighbouring non-advanced economies (given the location of most conflict-affected countries) and non-neighbouring advanced economies. As such, policies to absorb refugees and facilitate post-war reconstruction need to be long-term as well.

Keiichiro Kobayashi, 05 July 2022

The war in Ukraine has brought the use of nuclear weapons into the realm of possibility. This column points out weaknesses in the logic of mutually assured destruction that underlies nuclear deterrence strategies. Instead, it proposes a treaty to impose sanctions on pre-emptive uses of nuclear weapons to establish a new international norm in which all citizens of the world share the power to decide the fate of the planet.

Ellen Munroe, Anastasiia Nosach, Juan Felipe Riaño, Ana Tur-Prats, Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 08 June 2022

The war in Ukraine is having immediate and stark humanitarian and economic impacts, yet its long-term consequences are challenging to predict. This column revisits the evidence on the long-term impact of conflict and presents preliminary evidence for the continued invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The after-effects of bombing campaigns and those of violence against civilians can be substantial and are typically, although not exclusively, damaging. The authors find a strong positive correlation between the presence of ethnic Russians historically and current conflict, as well as a negative relationship between modern conflict and Holodomor famine deaths, both within Ukraine.

Eoin McGuirk, Marshall Burke, 26 May 2022

The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Ukraine has rightly commanded the attention of policymakers worldwide. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely have consequences that echo far beyond the borders of either country. This column draws on recent research to discuss how the war’s impact on food commodity prices may shape the distribution of violent conflict in Africa. The authors predict an overall increase in inter-group conflict, yet this encompasses large spatial variation across countries, with the top agricultural producers exhibiting a decrease in conflict due to higher wages.     

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, 10 May 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions of Ukrainian children to leave their schools and homes. Such adverse shocks early in life can have profound long-term effects. This column presents evidence from WWII and the Vietnam War of how childhood war exposure had detrimental effects on education, physical and mental health, and labour market outcomes, even decades after the conflicts. The effects were most pronounced for girls and children of lower socioeconomic status. Policies that prioritise children are essential to reduce the enduring effects of war.

Marco Del Angel, Gregory D. Hess, Marc Weidenmier, 08 May 2022

Recessions in Europe often pushed Europeans to migrate to the US in search of better economic opportunities. This column examines the effect of this on conflict with Native Americans in the western US during the late 19th century. The authors find that a recession in Europe significantly increased the probability of conflict between US soldiers and Native American tribes. As they were often driven off their land and relocated to areas with inferior land and rainfall, European immigration to the American west likely had long-term negative effects on economic conditions for Native Americans. 

Patricia Justino, 14 April 2022

The current and future civilian impacts of the war in Ukraine are immense. This column argues that the levels of vulnerability and resistance of civilians in wartime depend on three factors: the nature of violence during the war causing economic, psychological, and social disruption; the effectiveness of coping strategies employed by civilians, which depend on both economic needs and targeting by the enemy; and civilians’ own agency to both resist and shape the behaviour of armed forces. The Ukraine war is causing unmeasurable civilian suffering, but civilians may nonetheless shape the course of the conflict.

Andrea Berlanda, Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito, Dominic Rohner, Uwe Sunde, 09 April 2022

Adverse health shocks fuel discontent. Social unrest can be driven by grievances with the provision of local public services. This column examines the effect of a large-scale health intervention – the expansion of HIV antiretroviral therapy – on violent events throughout Africa. Where the treatment was expanded, incidents of social violence dropped substantially at both country and sub-national levels. This finding shows that successful public health interventions can yield legitimacy to the state, help build trust, and serve as a ‘medicine’ against both ill health and conflict.

Pauline Grosjean, 28 March 2022

Conflict durably shapes how individuals view the state and interact with each other. This column uses data from more than 35,000 individuals in 35 countries to show how conflict victimisation in WWII left a negative imprint on levels of political trust throughout Europe and Central Asia that has persisted over generations. The author also finds a lasting impact of pre-WWI empires on political trust and democratic capital that varies even across regions that have since been integrated into the same country. The findings have implications for Ukraine, a country that experienced both a divided history and some of the highest victimisation rates in WWII. 

Andrea Tesei, Jørgen Juel Andersen, Frode Martin Nordvik, 26 October 2021

Violent conflict often centres around the control of critical resources, including fossil fuels such as oil. This column explores how the location of oil reserves can affect the likelihood of a particular tension descending into widespread civil violence or war. Using a Norwegian data set, the authors show that the presence of onshore oil has a greater effect than offshore oil in driving conflict. Where a resource is relatively straightforward to access (i.e. on land as opposed to out at sea), rebel groups will be more easily able to reap the benefits of taking control through violence.

Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin L. Wright, 11 July 2021

Previous research in economics has focused on the causes of conflict, while the ending of military interventions has received less attention. This column examines the recent security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan using declassified data on conflict outcomes and perceptions of local security. It finds that a decline in violence during the initial phase of the security transfer was followed by an upsurge in violence once foreign troops physically withdrew, suggesting that the Taliban’s attacks have been highly strategic. 

Tim Besley, Chris Dann, Torsten Persson, 18 June 2021

The determinants of economic development have been debated for many years. However, some of these determinants have been hard to measure internationally. This column reviews evidence from 25 years of data to argue that countries form persistent ‘development clusters’ according to their levels of internal peace and state capacity.

Hâle Utar, 28 March 2021

The Mexican Drug War, including the ostentatious killings and the targeting of civillians, has been amply covered in the media. What is less known are the economic impacts of the violence, particularly at the firm level. This column presents evidence from Mexican firms, focusing on the differing experiences of ‘blue-collar’ and ‘white-collar’ organisations. The results suggest that violence can cause a negative labour supply shock, particularly in sectors that more frequently employ lower-skilled female workers.

Xavier Devictor, Quy-Toan Do, Andrei Levchenko, 20 February 2021

It is usually observed that countries neighbouring a conflict area end up accommodating the largest numbers of refugees often for very long periods of time. Using data on worldwide bilateral refugee stocks from 1987-2017 compiled by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, this column examines the spatial distribution of refugees and its evolution over time. It finds that while most refugees still remain in a country neighbouring their country of origin, the past decades have seen a trend towards greater geographic diffusion.

Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 20 November 2020

Laotians are still suffering collateral damage from a covert war that the US waged in the country half a century ago. Felipe Valencia Caicedo tells Tim Phillips about the devastating impact of the bombing of Laos, and how we can help victims of conflict in future.

Ulrich J. Eberle, Vernon Henderson, Dominic Rohner, Kurt Schmidheiny, 09 July 2020

Urbanisation is a major driver of economic development. Agglomeration forces that make cities productive and dispersion forces that limit their growth have been extensively studied, but the effect of ethnolinguistic diversity has been largely overlooked. This column shows that more diverse regions tend to experience more social tensions and conflict, less urbanisation, less urban concentration, and hence potentially less economic growth. This effect is however more confined to intermediate political regimes like fragile democracies, whereas a mature degree of democracy helps to defuse the negative impact of diversity on urbanisation.

Dominic Rohner, 14 February 2020

New research shows how a school-building programme in Indonesia successfully reduced conflict. Dominic Rohner tells Tim Phillips about this unanticipated peace dividend, and how the CEPR's research and policy network on conflict reduction will help policymakers.

Sebastian Edwards, 30 November 2019

In a few decades, Chile experienced dramatic economic growth and the fastest reduction of inequality in the region. Yet, many Chilean citizens feel that inequality has greatly increased. Such feelings of 'malestar' triggered the violent social unrest of October 2019. This paper explains this seeming paradox by differentiating ‘vertical’ (income) inequality from ‘horizontal’ (social) inequality. It argues that the neoliberalism that created Chile’s economic growth is no longer effective and that Chile may be headed towards adopting a welfare state model.

Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 22 October 2019

Ekaterina Zhuravskaya discusses the impact that international media has on military operations.

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