Philip Bunn, David E. Altig, Lena Anayi, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, 16 November 2021

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a massive spike in uncertainty. This column uses data from panel surveys of US and UK business executives to document how uncertainty over own-firm sales growth rates over the year ahead roughly doubled in reaction to the shock. Firm-level uncertainty receded after spring 2020 but remains much higher than pre-COVID levels. The nature of this uncertainty has shifted greatly since the pandemic struck, from an enormous widening in perceived downside risk to a sharp increase in upside risk. Economic uncertainty associated with the pandemic has morphed from a tale of the lower tail into a tale about the upper tail.

Thorsten Beck, 11 August 2020

Survey responses from early April across nearly 500 listed firms in ten emerging markets reveal that the vast majority of firms have been negatively affected by COVID-19 and reacted by reducing investment rather than payrolls. Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School) talks to Tim Phillips about “COVID-19 in emerging markets: firm-survey evidence”, from Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers 38, July .

Thorsten Beck, Burton Flynn, Mikael Homanen, 22 July 2020

Most of the evidence on firm-level impact of COVID-19 so far has been for advanced economies. Using survey responses from early April across nearly 500 listed firms in ten emerging markets, this column reveals that the vast majority of firms have been negatively affected by COVID-19 and reacted by reducing investment rather than payrolls. Moreover, it finds that there is a surprising degree of support vis-à-vis employees, customers, other stakeholders and broader society. Stakeholder-centric firms experienced lower stock price declines during the crisis drawdown.

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