Measures of economic uncertainty derived from statistical models are not well suited to quickly capture shifts associated with sudden, surprise developments like the COVID-19 crisis, thus necessitating forward-looking measures. This column considers several such forward-looking indicators of economic uncertainty for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All indicators show huge jumps in uncertainty in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Most indicators reach their highest values on record, but the extent of increases and time paths differ.
David E. Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites, 24 July 2020
Most Read
-
Hötte, Somers, Theodorakopoulos
-
Doepke, Hannusch, Kindermann, Tertilt
-
Harrison
-
Chepeliev, Maliszewska, Osorio Rodarte, Seara e Pereira, van der Mensbrugghe
-
Haltiwanger, Hyatt, Spletzer
-
Burgess, Sievertsen
-
Eichengreen, O'Rourke
-
Mitze, Kosfeld, Rode, Wälde
-
Heldring, Robinson
-
Allen
Blogs&Reviews
-
Carraro, Cœuré, Dhand, Eichengreen, Mills, Rey, Sapir, Schwarzer
-
Evenett
-
Fullerton, Levinson
-
Hoffmann, Moench, Pavlova, Schultefrankenfeld
-
Reichlin, Adam, McKibbin, McMahon, Reis, Ricco, Weder di Mauro
Events
-
5 - 15 July 2022 / Warwick/Coventry / University of Warwick
-
6 - 6 July 2022 / Online & On ESMT Berlin campus, Schlossplatz 1, 10178 Berlin / ESMT Berlin and CEPR
-
11 - 13 July 2022 / / National Council of Applied Economic Researach (NCAER)
-
8 - 19 August 2022 / Online / Harvard Kennedy School Executive Education
-
22 - 23 August 2022 / Palais Coburg, Vienna, Austria / WU Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Institute for Capital Markets (ISK)
CEPR Policy Research
-
Gobillon, Solignac
-
Giglio, Maggiori, Stroebel, Weber
-
Summers, Fatás
-
Favero, Galasso
-
Butt, Churm, McMahon, Morotz, Schanz
-
Eichengreen, Avgouleas, Poiares Maduro, Panizza, Portes, Weder di Mauro, Wyplosz, Zettelmeyer
-
Baldwin, Beck, Bénassy-Quéré, Blanchard, Corsetti, De Grauwe, den Haan, Giavazzi, Gros, Kalemli-Ozcan, Micossi, Papaioannou, Pesenti, Pissarides , Tabellini, Weder di Mauro
-
Baldwin, Nakatomi
-
Thimann
-
Goodhart, Perotti