Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Refet Gürkaynak, Roberto Motto, Giuseppe Ragusa, 04 October 2019

The newly released Euro Area Monetary Policy Event-Study Database makes available high-resolution data on asset price responses to ECB monetary policy announcements. In this column, the authors – the creators of the dataset – show that market perceptions of ECB policy communication comprise four factors: policy target, timing, forward guidance, and quantitative easing. These factors elicit large and long-lasting market reactions and help explain asset price changes in response to policy maker speeches and other news as well.

Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Refet Gürkaynak, Roberto Motto, Giuseppe Ragusa, 03 October 2019

High frequency data are an essential input to study the effects of monetary policy communication. This column introduces a new database, the Euro Area Monetary Policy Event-Study Database, which makes available intraday asset price changes around ECB policy announcements for a wide range of assets. The high resolution of the intraday data allows for the measurement of asset price changes separately for the press release and press conference windows.

Miguel Ampudia, Thorsten Beck, Andreas Beyer, Jean-Edouard Colliard, Agnese Leonello, Angela Maddaloni, David Marques-Ibanez, 20 September 2019

The decade since the Global Crisis has seen notable changes in the architecture of supervision, with separation of responsibility for monetary and financial stability having been reversed in many countries on the one hand, and a move towards more cross-border cooperation between supervisors on the other. This column discusses these two trends in Europe, where responsibility for supervision of the largest banks is housed in the same authority with responsibility for monetary policy, the ECB. It argues that the Single Supervisory Mechanism is a good reflection of the subtle economics of supervisory architecture and the many trade-offs that have to be taken into account.

Giovanna Bua, Peter G Dunne, 26 June 2019

Money market funds are important from a monetary policy perspective because they provide bank-like services and they are active in short-term funding markets. This column examines how recent extreme monetary policies have affected their performance and behaviour. Extreme monetary policy puts money market funds, which do not have access to the ECB’s deposit facility, under pressure by depressing the yields available on the assets they typically hold, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage relative to banks.  This could cause outflows of investment and unintended intermediation between banks and funds. 

Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 13 June 2019

Japan’s monetary policy has had to be unconventional in order to address the economic conditions the country has faced. This column assesses the Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchasing programme, which has been repeatedly expanded in recent years. The purchases have achieved some positive results, propping up stock prices but also increasing real output and inflation. But, given the increased risks the Bank faces as its purchases have grown, the time to unwind has come.

Anne-Laure Delatte, Pranav Garg, Jean Imbs, 21 May 2019

The ECB's unconventional monetary policy package implemented in February 2012 changed collateral requirements. This column examines the effects in the French credit market, using data on corporate loans. Credit indeed increased after the liquidity injection, exclusively driven by supply. There was also strategic risk-taking by a group of banks, an unintentional implication of the policy.

Roger Farmer, Giovanni Nicolò, 20 May 2019

The economies of many countries are operating close to full capacity, but unemployment and inflation are both low. Using data from the US, UK and Canada, this column compares differences in the macroeconomic behaviour of real GDP, the inflation rate and the yields on three-month Treasury securities in the three countries. It shows that the Farmer monetary model, closed with a belief function, outperforms the New Keynesian model, closed with the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The data fit the multiple equilibria emphasised in the Farmer model well, rather than the mean-reverting processes assumed by the New Keynesian model. 

Jeffrey Frankel, 09 May 2019

Stephen Moore, President Trump’s pick for the Federal Reserve Board, has been pro-cyclical in his recommendations for monetary policy, opposing stimulus when the economy needed it and favouring stimulus when the economy did not. This column argues that Moore’s switch to urging monetary stimulus when Trump took office fits into a wider pattern among of pro-cyclical positions among leading Republicans, not just in monetary policy, but also fiscal and regulatory policy.

Pierpaolo Benigno, 26 April 2019

Cryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of consumers, policymakers and the media. This column investigates whether they can jeopardise the primary function of central banks, namely, controlling inflation and economic activity. Currency competition can succeed in calming inflation and preventing the sort of manipulation of interest rates and prices to which governments have historically been prone. But currency competition may also lead to government money losing the function of medium of exchange, which could be risky and lead government currency into further troubles. 

Dirk Schoenmaker, 17 April 2019

The ECB’s market-neutral approach to monetary policy undermines the general aim of the EU to achieve a low-carbon economy. The column argues that steering the allocation of the Eurosystem’s assets and collateral towards low-carbon sectors would reduce the cost of capital for these sectors relative to high-carbon sectors. A modest titling approach could accelerate a transition to a low-carbon economy, and could be implemented without interfering with the priority of price stability.

David Martinez-Miera, Rafael Repullo, 27 March 2019

Various factors have been advanced as possible causes of the build-up of risks leading to the Global Crisis, and multiple policies have been put forward to address them. This column discusses the effectiveness of monetary policy and macroprudential policy in responding to the build-up of risks in the financial sector. While both policies are useful, macroprudential policy is more effective in terms of financial stability and can lead to higher welfare gains.

Giuseppe Ferrero, Mario Pietrunti, Andrea Tiseno, 21 March 2019

Dealing with uncertainty about the state of the economy is one of the main challenges facing monetary policymakers. In recent years there has been an extensive debate on the value of some of the deep parameters driving the economy, such as the natural rate of interest and the slope of the Phillips curve, estimates of which are quite uncertain. This column argues that when facing uncertainty on the structural relationship among macroeconomic variables, central banks should adopt a pragmatic and data-dependent approach to adjusting their monetary policy stance. 

Adam Elbourne, Kan Ji, Bert Smid, 13 March 2019

Previous research has shown that changes to the size of the ECB’s balance sheet were followed by meaningful changes in macroeconomic aggregates. This column argues that the econometric technique these studies employed does not provide reliable estimates. Impulse responses to purported balance sheet shocks are statistically indistinguishable from those from nonsensical identification schemes. The effectiveness of the ECB’s balance sheet policies is therefore still unproven.

Ester Faia, Vincenzo Pezone, 12 March 2019

Policymakers are concerned about effecting real change with monetary policy, particularly in the context of wage rigidity. This column uses extensive Italian data to analyse the extent to which wage rigidity induced by collective bargaining amplifies the effects of monetary policy. The volatility of stock market returns reacts more to monetary policy announcements when the average time left before the renewal of the employees’ collective agreement is large.

Marcin Bielecki, Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, 05 March 2019

Population ageing is likely to affect many areas of life, from pension system sustainability to housing markets. This column shows that monetary policy can be considered another victim. Low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy substantially lower the natural rate of interest. As a consequence, central banks are more likely to hit the lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate and face long periods of low inflation, especially if they fail to account for the impact of demographic trends on the natural interest rate in real time.

Carlo Altavilla, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto, Natacha Valla, 28 February 2019

The ECB Conference on Monetary Policy took place in Frankfurt from 29 to 30 October 2018. This column describes presentations on topics including the interaction of monetary policy and financial markets, the relevance of banks and credit flows for monetary policy transmission, and the current challenges for monetary policy frameworks and strategies. The conference provided a forum for academic research and the practice of central banking to meet. 

Maik Schmeling, Christian Wagner, 22 February 2019

According to Ben Bernanke, “monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action”.Using data on policy rate announcements and press conferences by the ECB between 1999 and 2017, this column shows that central bank tone affects asset prices, even after controlling for policy actions and economic fundamentals. The results are consistent with the idea that communication tone is a monetary policy tool that allows central banks to affect the risk appetite of market participants and the risk premia they require.

Ashoka Mody, Milan Nedeljkovic, 14 January 2019

The ECB’s actions in the wake of the Global Crisis have been described as hesitant, relative to other central banks. Based on analysis of financial markets' response to the ECB's interventions during the euro crisis, this column argues that central bank interventions are effective if they clearly signal a commitment to reinvigorating the economy and if they address the source rather than the symptom of financial stress. The ECB did not follow these principles, limiting its ability to improve financial market sentiment. 

Wei Cui, Vincent Sterk, 09 January 2019

The effects of quantitative easing are poorly understood, in part because standard models of monetary policy predict that it doesn't work. This column uses a model in which households can be unequal and hold assets with different degrees of liquidity to show that quantitative easing can provide a powerful stimulus to the macroeconomy, and that it avoided a large decline in output and inflation during 2009. Nevertheless, side-effects on inequality mean that social welfare tends to be lower under quantitative easing than under conventional policy.


Submissions are sought on the following themes:
• Digital currencies, fintech, and technology
• Regulation, markets, and financial intermediation
• International economics
• Macroeconomics, monetary policy, macrofinance, monetary policy frameworks, and communication
• Inflation dynamics
• Policy lessons from the history of finance and central banking
The deadline for submissions is Saturday, February 2nd.
The meeting commences on Thursday, July 18 at the FRB New York, featuring presentations by Nellie Liang and Jeremy C. Stein, and John C. Williams.
The 31 contributed sessions take place on Friday and Saturday, July 19-20 at the Kellogg Center, SIPA, Columbia University. Contributed sessions are organized by BIS, FSB, IMF, SNB, FRB St. Louis, Bank of Israel, FRB Cleveland, ECB, Riksbank, FRB San Francisco, Norges Bank, Bank of Spain, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Bank of Korea, OeNB, FRB Minneapolis, Bundesbank, Central Bank of Ireland, SAFE, CEPR, ABFER, and IBRN.



CEPR Policy Research