Most observers in Geneva expect the Doha round to fail. If that happens, this column argues that the prospects for US market-access policy will be grim. New multilateral tariff cutting is unlikely before 2020 and special interest groups in the US will hold back free trade agreements, leaving the country to fall behind in the bilateral market-access game.
Marc Flandreau, 23 August 2008
As WTO negotiations have failed, pragmatists have embraced preferential trade agreements. This column presents new evidence on the Anglo-French treaty of 1860 and argues that, contrary to all conventional wisdom, history’s most celebrated bilateral deal did not stimulate trade. That lesson should give pause to modern advocates of preferential trade agreements.
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