Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal, Ryan Monarch, 01 September 2020

The rise of global supply chains means that many firms that import are also exporters. This column uses confidential firm-trade linked transaction data to identify the firms facing new US import tariffs in the period 2018-2019. It shows that product exports with higher firm-level exposure to new import tariffs had weaker export growth after 2018 than less exposed products. This impact on export growth is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2-4% for the average product.

CEPR Policy Research