Gail Cohen, Prakash Loungani, 23 October 2018

At first glance, emissions and economic activity appear to be positively linked. This column refutes this by re-examining emissions and real GDP data using trend/cycle decompositions. The evidence clearly demonstrates decoupling of emissions and real GDP in many richer nations. Furthermore, although decoupling does not yet appear in emerging markets, data from China show that trend elasticities initially increase with per capita real GDP but then decline, thus holding out the hope that the relationship between emissions and GDP growth will weaken as emerging market countries get richer.

Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 29 March 2013

The Eurozone and US business cycles seems to have decoupled, but is Germany on the US or Eurozone side of the divide? This column presents recent results from the Now-Casting model on whether this US-Eurozone decoupling also applies to Germany. If this is right, the German stock market – which seems to predict Germany’s convergence to the US path – is due for a correction.

Maurizio Bovi, 23 July 2012

Is the crisis ‘decoupling’ the Greeks from Greece? Using EU survey data, this column shows that before the global crisis, Greeks’s assements of their own economic stance was in line with that of their country as a whole. But during the recent crisis years most Greeks thought they were doing better than average. This column explains this puzzle using insights from psychology.

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Tomás Williams, 08 May 2012

In the 2000s, emerging economies reduced their business cycle co-movement with G7 economies. Did this macroeconomic autonomy enhance the relevance of local fundamentals as drivers of emerging market returns? This column argues it did not, due to the role of benchmarked institutional investors.

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Luciano Cohan, 12 January 2012

Four years ago, there was growing support for the idea of ‘decoupling’ – that emerging markets were becoming less affected by business cycle swings in developed economies. Then came the global crisis. Focusing on Latin America, this column argues that the 2010s will be a far harder decade. But that might not be such a bad thing if it forces these economies to look again at their growth strategies.

Dirk Schoenmaker, 25 October 2011

Responses to the financial crisis have largely been along national lines. Governments rescued banks headquartered within their borders, and supervisors are requiring banks to match their assets and liabilities at a national level. This column says stable cross-border banking is incompatible with national financial supervision, which means the European banking market needs European authorities.

Nicolas Véron, 13 October 2011

Europe, and the Eurozone especially, is years into an economic crisis. This column argues that if the euro is to survive, Eurozone citizens will have to accept the surrender of economic policy decision-making on an unprecedented scale.

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 07 November 2009

Most evidence says that emerging economies remain coupled to global growth. Does that threaten their economic resilience? This column says that emerging economies’ growth is more linked to Chinese growth than that of G7 economies, suggesting that their performance is rooted in well-founded, long-term economic trends.

Andrew Rose, 01 August 2009

Less synchronised business cycles would be good news for the world economy, allowing for more stable global growth and opportunities for risk-sharing across countries. However, is decoupling fact or fiction? This column says that, contrary to much current commentary, there is no downward trend in synchronisation.

Sébastien Wälti, 27 July 2009

Have emerging market economies decoupled from advanced economies’ business cycles? This column, looking at emerging markets’ trend growth rates, argues that decoupling was always a myth and that globalisation brings national business cycles closer together.

Eswar Prasad, Christopher Otrok , M. Ayhan Kose, 04 October 2008

Paradoxically, global integration has made emerging markets less dependent on the fates of the industrial nations. Have they “decoupled” from industrial country business cycles enough to dodge the current financial turmoil? This column dissects the decoupling debate and explains why the quickly shifting structure of the global economy makes predicting spillovers very difficult.

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