Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin L. Wright, 11 July 2021

Previous research in economics has focused on the causes of conflict, while the ending of military interventions has received less attention. This column examines the recent security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan using declassified data on conflict outcomes and perceptions of local security. It finds that a decline in violence during the initial phase of the security transfer was followed by an upsurge in violence once foreign troops physically withdrew, suggesting that the Taliban’s attacks have been highly strategic. 

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