Kenneth Rogoff, 21 September 2021

The Chinese economy was able to sharply rebound from the Covid pandemic, helping to sustain a housing boom. The country faces a multitude of challenges over the medium term, however, on top of the much more virulent Delta variant. This column argues that the footprint of China’s real estate sector has become so large – with an impact of real estate production and property services on GDP of 29% – that absorbing a significant housing slowdown would significantly impact overall growth, even absent a financial crisis.

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