Just over a year ago, congressional Democrats took majority control of the US House of Representatives. This column examines the relationship between local exposure to President Trump’s trade war and US voting patterns, and suggests that the producer-side consequences of the trade war may have been responsible for five of the 40 seats lost by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. The combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats.
Emily Blanchard, Chad Bown, Davin Chor, 26 November 2019
David Strömberg, 03 November 2008
Will tomorrow’s US presidential election be closer than expected because Barack Obama is African-American? This column looks at the last decade of US electoral contests with black candidates and says that there is a Bradley effect, in which African-American candidates garner lower vote shares than predicted by opinion polls. If that holds true, it will be close tomorrow.
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19 - 19 February 2020 / Milan, Italy / SUERF and UniCredit Foundation
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13 - 13 March 2020 / London / UK Network for Environmental Economists
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20 - 20 March 2020 / University of Paris Nanterre / EconomiX-CNRS and the Doctoral School EOS (Université Paris Ouest - Nanterre La Défense), CeReFiM (University of Namur), LFIN (Université Catholique de Louvain-Louvain School of Management) and LEO (Université d'Orléans)
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25 - 26 March 2020 / London, United Kingdom / Bank of England, CEPR and Imperial College
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