Just over a year ago, congressional Democrats took majority control of the US House of Representatives. This column examines the relationship between local exposure to President Trump’s trade war and US voting patterns, and suggests that the producer-side consequences of the trade war may have been responsible for five of the 40 seats lost by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. The combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats.
Emily Blanchard, Chad Bown, Davin Chor, 26 November 2019
David Strömberg, 03 November 2008
Will tomorrow’s US presidential election be closer than expected because Barack Obama is African-American? This column looks at the last decade of US electoral contests with black candidates and says that there is a Bradley effect, in which African-American candidates garner lower vote shares than predicted by opinion polls. If that holds true, it will be close tomorrow.
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Baldwin, Weder di Mauro, 18 March 2020
Events
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8 - 8 April 2020 / /
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20 - 23 April 2020 / Guildford, Surrey, UK / University of Surrey
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23 - 23 April 2020 / Madrid, Spain / IE Business School
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23 - 24 April 2020 / Bratislava, Slovakia / National Bank of Slovakia in cooperation with CompNet
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8 - 9 May 2020 / Princeton, NJ / International Economics Section at the Department of Economics of Princeton University
