Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda, Benjamin Wong, 29 April 2022

Supply chain disruptions and labour shortages coupled with demand-side pressures have seen goods inflation soaring since early 2021. This column shows that while goods inflation used to contribute to permanently higher headline inflation, such as during the Great Inflation of the 1970s, since the early 1990s it has become predominantly transitory. The current high goods inflation can therefore be expected to be somewhat short-lived. Nonetheless, the authors document that the upside risks to longer-term aggregate and sector-specific inflation remain greater than usual. 


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