Caroline Freund, 03 July 2009

The collapse in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade also responds more sharply to GDP during global slowdowns than during tranquil times.

Kyoji Fukao, Tangjun Yuan, 08 June 2009

Though Japan has not suffered greatly from a housing collapse or toxic assets, its economy has been hit harder by the crisis than the US or EU. Japan’s contraction is almost entirely due to a steep fall in external demand. This column uses input-output analysis to show that the fall in US demand has had an amplified effect on Japan because it not only reduces Japanese net exports to the US but also net exports of intermediate goods to Asian countries, where they would have been assembled for final export to the US.

Marc Auboin, 05 June 2009

Trade finance, which supports the bulk of world trade, has deteriorated during the crisis and will continue to worsen in 2009. This column says that the response of public-backed institutions has been insufficient to cover the gap between supply and demand of trade finance worldwide. The G20 has adopted a wider package for injecting some $250 billion in order to further support trade finance.

Emmanuel Frot, 13 May 2009

Developing countries are expected to be severely hit by the recent financial crisis. This column says that based on previous crises, aid flows to developing countries should be down by 13%. However, donor countries’ pledges may soften the shock this time around.

Roger Kubarych, 04 May 2009

The financial crisis is not over but it seems less scary since the US stock market decided that most big banks will survive. This column provides a current scoreboard of the crisis game and reminds everybody that the underlying problems are hardly resolved. A lot of banks sorely need capital and need to raise it relatively cheaply.

Joseph Francois, Julia Woerz, 02 May 2009

Is the current collapse in trade unprecedented, inconsistent with the general level of economic downturn, and indicative of a trade-related set of problems calling for trade-specific solutions? This column, by carefully comparing real and nominal trade trends, finds that trade seems to be a victim of non-trade weaknesses in credit and demand. While we should maintain a rearguard action on the protectionism front, the cure for the symptoms lies in curing the underlying illness.

Robert J. Gordon, 01 May 2009

When will the US economy turn around? World renown macroeconomist Bob Gordon – a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee since 1978 – documents a surprisingly robust link between the business cycle trough and the lagged peak in unemployment claims. According to this link, springtime for the US economy is just around the corner.

Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen, 30 April 2009

Will the financial crisis reverse the trend of declining global poverty? This column estimates that the crisis will add 64 million people to the population living under $2 a day. It predicts that the global poverty rate will fall from 42% to 39% in 2009, while the pre-crisis trajectory would have brought the poverty rate down to 38%.

Timothy Hatton, Jeffrey Williamson, 29 April 2009

International migration rises and falls with the business cycle, as do attitudes towards migrants. History leads us to expect a global recession to increase anti-immigrant sentiments and possibly spur new barriers to migration. However, this column argues that such measures are less likely than in the past, as anti-immigrant sentiments are relatively weak and economic and demographic forces are reducing the long-run immigration trend.

Ronald Mendoza, Pedro Conceição, 18 April 2009

The global economic crisis shifted attention away from high food and oil prices. But this column says that the global food crisis persists. International food prices are still above their average levels, and domestic food prices in many countries have remained “sticky”. The poor still have many reasons to worry, as many of the factors that contributed to high and volatile prices remain unaddressed.

Barry Eichengreen, Kevin O'Rourke, 08 March 2010

This column updates the original Vox columns by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke comparing today’s global crisis to the Great Depression. The three previous columns have shattered all Vox readership records with over 450,000 views. This latest edition covers up to February 2010 showing that, while there is cause for optimism, there is no room for complacency.

Markus Jäger, 03 April 2009

Will big emerging economies be sunk by the global crisis? This column says that they should be able to avoid external payments defaults and systemic banking crises, provided that they allow exchange rates to adjust and refrain from running outsized fiscal deficits.

Edward Kane, 02 March 2009

CEPR Policy Insight No. 32 attributes the ongoing financial crisis to the economic and political difficulties of monitoring and controlling the production and distribution of safety-net subsidies.

Edward Kane, 03 March 2009

This column introduces Edward J. Kane’s new Policy Insight on the incentive roots of the securitisation crisis

Morris Goldstein, 24 February 2009

This column sketches proposed reforms for regulation, supervision, and oversight of international financial markets. At both the national and international levels, there will be plenty of work to do for the IMF, the FSF, international standard-setting bodies, and national regulators and supervisors.

Francisco Rodríguez, 23 February 2009

The development theme in the Global Crisis Debate has elicited many important and novel contributions on what the crisis means for the developing world and how developing nations should react. This column provides a synthesis and commentary of the key proposals.

Jon Danielsson, Gylfi Zoega, 09 February 2009

Some view Iceland’s crisis as holding lessons for any country with an outsized financial sector, e.g. the UK. This column disagrees, arguing that Iceland’s downfall is explained by the way its unique history, inappropriate policy responses, and weaknesses in EU banking regulations created a perfect storm, unlikely to happen elsewhere.

Marc Auboin, 28 January 2009

Some 80% to 90% of world trade relies on trade finance, and there is little doubt that the trade finance market will experience difficult times in the first half of 2009 – difficulties that will contribute the global economic malaise. Public-backed institutions are responding, but are they doing enough?

Martin Feldstein, 26 January 2009

This column presents Marty Feldstein’s views on the euro. He suggests that tough economic conditions in Europe may cause substantial economic policy disagreements among the Eurozone countries and that one or more countries might actually withdraw from the Eurozone.

Barry Eichengreen, 20 January 2009

2008 was the year of asymmetric financial shocks for the Eurozone, but 2009 will be the year of the symmetric economic shock. All of Europe is slipping simultaneously towards recession and the threat of deflation. Here one of the world’s leading international economists explains that a common monetary policy response is optimal. Euro interest rates should be cut to zero and quantitative easing undertaken, all complemented by fiscal expansion by Eurozone nations that can afford it. What started as the euro’s greatest challenge could be its salvation, but only if policy makers act swiftly.

Pages

Events

CEPR Policy Research