Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John Haltiwanger, Zoltan Wolf, 17 June 2018

Measuring innovative activity itself, rather than proxies such as R&D expenditures or patent volumes, is difficult. This column shows how patterns of economic activity can be used to measure increased innovative activity within firms. This ‘searching for black holes’ approach can be used to better understand the connection between innovation and productivity dispersion and growth.

Antonio Fatás, 16 June 2018

Nicholas Bloom, 12 June 2018

Dave Donaldson, 11 June 2018

Examples of geographical clustering in industries, such as Silicon Valley, suggest that firms have potentially positive external effects on other firms' productivities. Dave Donaldson discusses his research on the extent to which this is taking place, the strength of these economies of scale - for firms, workers, and consumers - and the role the government can play to foster this. This video was recorded at the 2018 RES Conference.

Georg Duernecker, Berthold Herrendorf, Akos Valentinyi, 16 May 2018

Baumol argued that structural change may lead to a productivity slowdown due to a reallocation of production to service industries with low productivity growth. This column uses a new framework to estimate the effects of Baumol’s disease on future productivity growth in the US. The results suggest that future structural change will not reduce productivity much further thanks to substitutability within the broader service sector.

Giordano Mion, 04 May 2018

Ten years on from the Global Crisis, productivity growth in the UK lags behind that in economies such as France and Germany. Giordano Mion shares his work on why this 'productivity puzzle' exists. The production capacity of manufacturers has not fallen much since 2008, but demand has faltered. This video was recorded at the 2018 RES Conference.

Pauline Charnoz, Claire Lelarge, Corentin Trevien, 22 April 2018

Research has shown that lower communication costs can act as a centralising force, prompting workers tend to rely more on the help of others and to specialise on a narrower set of tasks. This column reveals how reduced travel times resulting from a new high-speed rail transport in France fostered functional specialisation across different units of firms and greater centralisation. The findings highlight the mechanisms determining the level and distribution of productivity in an economy, and their redistributive impact both between and within firms

Finn Tarp, 16 April 2018

In economies like Viet Nam, policy agendas are increasingly data-driven. In this video, Finn Tarp shares five key policy goals for the country, based on data-rich household surveys. A combination of all five, including increasing productivty and innovation in and out of the agricultural sector, are needed to promote long-term growth.

Nicholas Bloom, Aprajit Mahajan, David McKenzie, John Roberts, 28 March 2018

John Van Reenen, 23 March 2018

Competition can foster productivity by eliminating unproductive firms out of the market. John Van Reenen discusses the impact of management quality on productivity - and how this is influenced by market forces. This video was published by the CORE Project.

Brian McCaig, Nina Pavcnik, 23 March 2018

Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, 15 March 2018

Existing research offers little guidance to policymakers who want to understand the interactions between economic fluctuations, growth, and stabilisation policies. This column introduces a Keynesian growth framework that provides a theory of long-run growth, built on a Keynesian approach to economic fluctuations. In the model, pessimistic expectations about future growth can give rise to stagnation traps. It suggests that monetary policy during a stagnation trap is hindered by credibility issues.

Anant Nyshadham, 09 March 2018

Jonathan Haskel, Stian Westlake, 31 May 2018

Many economists have suggested that slowing technical innovation is behind the secular stagnation and slowdown in total factor productivity growth that have plagued many advanced economies since the Global Crisis. This column, first published in January 2018, argues that the recent rise of the intangible economy could play an important role. An assessment of measurement trends and the properties of intangible investment across the globe suggests that total factor productivity growth will continue to be low until governments design the institutions an intangible economy needs, and until its commercial, legal, and ethical norms are worked out.

Emek Basker, Timothy S. Simcoe, 18 January 2018

ICT fuelled rapid growth in US retail during the 1990s and 2000s. This column maps the adoption of universal product codes and scanners to show that the barcode was one of the main drivers of this growth. Companies adopting barcodes employed 10% more employees, delivered a wider range of products, and were more likely to procure from abroad.

Miriam Bruhn, Dean Karlan, Antoinette Schoar, 18 December 2017

Atsushi Ohyama, 14 December 2017

The length of time industries prosper varies significantly. This column examines why some industries grow and prosper for a long period of time through the lens of submarket creation and destruction. Using data from the Japanese Census of Manufacture, it shows that the creation and the destruction of products allow an industry to continue attracting new entrants, that start-up and spinoff firms are more likely to enter a newly created submarket than incumbent firms, and that new entry is encouraged when unrealised business opportunities are reallocated smoothly.

Ricardo Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 13 December 2017

The US has seen a fall in real interest rates but stable real returns on productive capital in the last few decades. This column argues that these divergent trends are inherently interlinked, and arise from a combination of a rise in the capital risk premium, an increase in monopoly rents from mark-ups, and capital-biased technical change. With these secular trends unlikely to reverse anytime soon, we are likely to live in a prolonged era of low interest rates, high capital risk premia, and low labour share.

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, 04 December 2017

Mounting evidence suggests that average mark-ups in the US economy have been increasing. This column argues that about half of measured aggregate productivity growth over the last 20 years can be accounted for by firms with higher mark-ups increasing their relative size. This implies that the slowdown in pure technology growth is even slower than suggested by aggregate productivity statistics. Eliminating mark-ups would increase the productivity of the US economy by about 40%.



CEPR Policy Research