Richard Zeckhauser, Karen Eggleston, John Rizzo, Hai Fang, 05 June 2010

Understanding the relationship between female employment and fertility is a vital ingredient for effective population policy. This column presents new findings from China based on well over 2000 women between 20 and 52 years old. It finds that non-agricultural jobs for women reduce the number of children per woman by 0.64 and the probability of having more than one child by 54.8%.

Pranab Bardhan, 28 May 2010

Pranab Bardhan of the University of California, Berkeley, talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about his new book ‘Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay: Assessing the Economic Rise of China and India’. He argues that significant poverty reduction in both countries is mainly due to domestic factors – not global integration, as most would believe. The interview was recorded at the London School of Economics in May 2010.

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci, Cesar Tamayo, TengTeng Xu, 20 May 2010

What would a Chinese currency revaluation mean for Latin America? This column argues that a revaluation is no silver bullet. It will not solve Latin America’s problems with excessive capital inflows, exchange-rate appreciation, and loss of competitiveness. In fact it poses serious risks. A 10% revaluation of the renminbi could reduce growth in Latin America by 0.3%.

Kati Suominen, 16 April 2010

Should the US take action over China’s exchange-rate policy? This column argues “yes”. But while China would be momentarily hurt by the imposition of tariffs, US companies, workers, and consumers would suffer in the long run. The US should instead follow Fred Bergsten’s three-stage plan of engaging the IMF and WTO. The column also suggests that a long-run solution should be worked out within the G20.

Alicia García-Herrero, Tuuli Koivu, 16 April 2010

If China’s currency does appreciate, what impact will it have? This column argues that while Chinese exports will fall, so will Chinese imports, because China imports components from other East Asian countries that are then processed before being exported to western markets. A 10% rise in the renminbi would reduce imports of components by 6%.

Joseph Francois, 16 April 2010

Will an appreciation of the Chinese currency create more US jobs? This column argues quite the opposite. A 10% appreciation would lead to a rise in the US price level by approximately 0.16%, meaning that in total the US would experience a mix of falling real wages and falling employment.

Andrew Small, 16 April 2010

The approaching US decision over China’s exchange-rate policy is as much about politics as economics. This column argues that the coming months will define broader Sino-US relations. The good news is that Beijing stepped back this month, avoiding an outright confrontation. The bad news is that this is only round one.

François Godement, 16 April 2010

The delayed announcement of a US decision over China’s exchange-rate policy has stoked the fire of debate over trade relations. This column argues that the efforts of China’s main trade partners – the EU as well as the US – would be better spent on ensuring a steady rebalancing of China’s economy towards greater private consumption and imports rather than simply currency revaluation.

Joseph Gagnon, 30 April 2010

This column argues that a 10% revaluation of the Chinese currency would likely increase US employment by at least 670,000. This is in stark contrast to recent Vox contributions by Simon Evenett and Joseph Francois claiming that an appreciation of the Chinese currency would reduce US employment by 400,000 to 600,000 jobs.

Arvind Subramanian, 16 April 2010

As the debate over China’s exchange rate intensifies, several commentators have been left despairing over the wide disparity in estimates of the extent of China’s currency undervaluation. This column argues that a new purchasing-power-parity approach provides a more consistent estimate of renminbi undervaluation at around 30%.

John Magnus, Timothy Brightbill, 16 April 2010

Does the US have a legal case for action against China’s exchange-rate policy? This column argues China’s currency regime qualifies as a subsidy in the legal sense and that the US has a legitimate case to respond within both the US and WTO legal frameworks. The high-profile difficulties are no reason to shy away from taking legal action.

Philip Levy, 16 April 2010

Many US analysts argue that China’s currency is undervalued and that its policy significantly impedes global macroeconomic rebalancing. This column outlines the possible policy responses available to the US. While multilateral policies are slower, they are less likely than unilateral policies to trigger a negative political response. But first the US needs to establish a principled basis for action.

Simon Evenett, 16 April 2010

Today Vox posts a new eBook “The US-Sino currency dispute: New insights from economics, politics, and law” that gathers 28 short essays written by 33 authors from around the world. The eBook provides the best available economic, legal, political, and geopolitical thinking on the confrontation, as well as on the causes and likely consequences of the dispute.

Takatoshi Ito, 15 April 2010

One objection to the calls for China to let its currency appreciate argues that the yen's appreciation during the 1980s was a cause of Japan’s “lost decade”. This column instead blames policymakers for not dealing with Japan’s property bubble early enough. China should learn from these mistakes with its own property bubble and let the renminbi appreciate.

Joel Trachtman, 30 April 2010

Does the US have a legal case against China’s exchange-rate regime? This column, which first appeared in Vox's latest eBook, argues that any claim against China at the WTO would face substantial hurdles, and would be unlikely to add pressure on China any time soon. If a claim does go ahead, it is more likely than not to fail.

Jeffrey Frankel, 16 April 2010

Much of the debate over China’s exchange-rate policy has focused on the effect on the US and other western economies. This column provides a comprehensive summary of China’s exchange-rate policy over the last five years and argues that it would also be in China’s interest to let its currency appreciate – and now is as good a time as any.

Claude Barfield, 16 April 2010

As the speculation over US action on China’s alleged currency manipulation intensifies, this column outlines the bills, proposals and comments that make up the political background to this debate.

Yiping Huang, 16 April 2010

The debate over the cause of China’s current-account surplus continues to develop. This column suggests a number of factors are probably to blame and one less-considered cause is input-cost distortion caused by China’s asymmetric economic liberalisation. Any debate on policy response must therefore move beyond simply discussing currency appreciation.

Fred Bergsten, 16 April 2010

C Fred Bergsten is one of several commentators calling for action against China’s exchange-rate policy. In this column, he outlines a three-part multilateral action plan to force China to allow the renminbi to appreciate: label China a “currency manipulator”, seek a special IMF consultation, and request a WTO dispute settlement panel.

Dukgeun Ahn, 16 April 2010

How might the US take action through the WTO over China’s alleged currency manipulation? This column analyses three potential legal issues: legality of exchange-rate policy under the GATT rules, legality under the subsidy rules, and the feasibility of non-violation complaints. It concludes that any WTO resolution will be difficult to achieve because the organisation is not designed to deal with alleged exchange-rate manipulation.



CEPR Policy Research