Takatoshi Ito, Satoshi Koibuchi, Kiyotaka Sato, Junko Shimizu, Taiyo Yoshimi, 23 July 2021

The currency a firm chooses to invoice in reveals lessons on the prominence of that currency in the international sphere. This column presents survey data from Japanese overseas subsidiaries, highlighting how the use of Asian currencies has been growing steadily. The authors show that among Asian local currencies, Chinese renminbi and Thai baht are the most used currencies by Japanese subsidiaries. If these countries become increasingly important destination markets for regional countries, local currencies will be used more as trade invoice currency in Asia.

Chuan He, Karsten Mau, Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu, 15 July 2021

Tariffs are often advertised as an effective tool to protect or even create jobs in specific industries. Empirical evidence suggests differently. Using data from a Chinese online job portal, this column documents how firms facing US tariff increases during the recent trade war posted fewer jobs and offered lower salaries, among other adjustments. Chinese retaliatory tariffs have not induced any systematic adjustments in firms’ vacancy postings. The winners of the trade war remain elusive while losers can be found on both sides.


We are delighted to invite you to an online discussion and launch of a new RESPECT ebook, 'Rebooting Multilateral Trade Cooperation: Perspectives from China and Europe' published by CEPR/VoxEU. The event will be hosted by the Friends of Multilateralism Group in Geneva and will take place online on 13 July from 15:00 to 16:30 CEST.

Opening Remarks: Mia Mikic (FMG)
Presentations: Bernard Hoekman (EUI, FMG) and Xinquan Tu (UIBE)
Discussant comments:
Yi Xiaozhun (UIBE, Former DDG, WTO)
Alan Wolff (PIIE, former DDG, WTO)
Jean-Marie Paugam (DDG, WTO)
Deborah Elms (Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre)
General Q&A
Moderator for the whole webinar: Patrick Low (FMG)

Zoom--Please click the link below to join the webinar:
Passcode: 086513

Rising geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions are undermining the rules-based multilateral trade order and threaten the ability of the WTO to fulfill its functions. The ebook ';Rebooting Multilateral Trade Cooperation: Perspectives from China and Europe' presents essays that explore options and possible paths forward to reboot multilateral trade cooperation, focusing on both cross-cutting areas pertaining to the operation of the organization subject-specific trade cooperation challenges confronting the WTO membership. While issue-specific cooperation on a plurilateral basis is part of the solution suggested by several of the contributions, others make clear that this does not remove the need for balance in the choice of issues put forward for deliberation and negotiation and for systemic WTO reform.

The ebook is available on CERP/VoxEU website: https://voxeu.org/content/rebooting-multilateral-trade-cooperation-perspectives-china-and-europe.

Bernard Hoekman, Xinquan Tu, 12 July 2021

Rising geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions among major trade powers are undermining the rules-based multilateral trade order. A new VoxEU eBook brings together teams of mostly Chinese and European experts who focus on key challenges confronting the multilateral trading system. Pursuit of issue-specific negotiations on an open plurilateral basis offers prospects for revitalizing the WTO but does not remove the need for balance in the choice of issues put forward for negotiation and for systemic WTO reform. Joint leadership by China and the EU to establish a balanced work programme that spans both old and new issues of interest to all WTO members is a necessary condition to reboot the rules-based trade order.

Brunello Rosa, Alessandro Tentori, 26 June 2021

Digital currencies are becoming increasingly present on both research and policy agendas, including for central banks. This column explores the geopolitical role of central bank digital currencies, with a particular focus on China. It argues that such currencies could be useful as a means for central banks to record transactions in an increasingly cashless economy and could help improve central banks’ monetary transmission. Nonetheless, the risk of cyber-attacks should not be overlooked.

Ian Goldin, Pantelis Koutroumpis, François Lafond, Julian Winkler, 31 May 2021

Labour productivity is a key determinant in improving living standards. But in recent years, productivity has stagnated, if not declined, in many countries around the world. This column re-evaluates the various reasons as to why this might be, applying three criteria to the existing explanations for the slowdown. It finds that the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from mismeasurement to changes in trade patterns.

Chad Bown, 30 April 2021

If you had trouble in the last four years keeping up with what was happening in the trade war, you're not alone. Chad Bown tell Tim Phillips about his new paper that explains what happened, when, what it meant - and what happens next.

Petros C. Mavroidis, André Sapir, 30 April 2021

The ability of the WTO to shape the way China conducts its trade policy has been severely limited, and most attempts to leverage multilateral pressure have so far failed. This third in a series of three columns explores how the relationship could be reformed and improved going forward. The authors highlight the need for clearer guidelines on state-owned enterprises, as well as new rules surrounding the transfer of technology between signatories.

Petros C. Mavroidis, André Sapir, 29 April 2021

Having joined the WTO, many Western countries expected China to soon liberalise and become an open market economy. This second in a series of three columns describes how China has been able to shrug off pressures to change its economic structure and trading strategy, particularly regarding how its state-owned enterprises operate within the multilateral system.

Petros C. Mavroidis, André Sapir, 28 April 2021

China’s ascension to the WTO followed years of negotiations with the incumbent members and was hailed at the time as a victory for the liberal paradigm – part of the ‘end of history’. But today frictions remain. This first in a series of three columns presents the build-up to China joining the multilateral trade agreement, arguing that expectations for its subsequent behaviour were misguided from the off.

Robert Gilhooly, Carolina Martinez, Abigail Watt, 13 April 2021

Emerging markets will be shaped by the US and Chinese policy stances in 2021. This column considers how the latest US fiscal package will interact with China’s policy normalisation and concludes that while President Biden’s American Rescue Plan should dominate a less expansionary stance in China, the boost to the global economy will be much more modest than one would typically expect. Specifically, the normalisation of goods consumption in developed markets and less import-intensive Chinese growth will curtail global goods trade, a key determinant of emerging market growth.

Gaurav Khanna, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Ran Song, 08 April 2021

Why do workers remain in low-productivity areas when they could experience wage gains elsewhere? While the literature has proposed a few explanations, including the high cost and risky nature of migration, this column uses the case of China to examine instead the role that pollution plays. It finds that severe pollution can induce workers to relocate from productive to unproductive regions, suggesting that pollution control, coupled with policies facilitating migration, has the potential to bring about extra economic gains in developing countries.


The 14th China Economics Summer Institute (CESI) will be held online between 25-27 August 2021 by Tsinghua University. The objective of CESI is to create a network and community of top level scholars working on Chinese economic development (working papers of previous CESI available at http://cesi.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/). This initiative is currently co-sponsored by the Chinese University of Hong Kong – Tsinghua University Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy, the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, the Stanford King Center on Global Development at Stanford University, and the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University. The Summer Institute is organized in collaboration with the BREAD, NBER and CEPR networks of academic economists.
This call invites you to submit a paper or express your interest in attending the above Summer Institute, which will be hosted online this year by Tsinghua University, during 25-27 August 2021. The workshop intends to bring together the best scholars working on China in China, the US and Europe with other top level scholars who have an interest in working on China in the future. We welcome applications not only from those who want to present their research on China but also from anybody who has an interest in doing serious economic research on China and would like to use the workshop as means of exploring this possibility.
During the workshop for a period of three days, there will be seminar presentations. Senior scholars who will attend will be available for consultations with junior scholars. Afternoon sessions will give the opportunity to a select group of young scholars and Ph.D students to present their work.
The scientific committee of the China Economics Summer Institute is composed of Chong-En Bai, Ruixue Jia, Hongbin Li, Ernest Liu, Yi Lu, Albert Park, Gérard Roland, Zheng (Michael) Song, Heiwai Tang, Daniel Xu, Xiaobo Zhang, Yifan Zhang, and Li-An Zhou.
Please register online (https://cloud.itsc.cuhk.edu.hk/mycuform/view.php?id=986684) for possible presentation at the meeting or expressions of interest in attending the meeting by 7 May 2021 (Friday).
If you need further information, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Yours sincerely,
China Economics Summer Institute (CESI)
Website: http://cesi.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/
Email: [email protected]

Nicola Bianchi, Yi Lu, Hong Song, 27 March 2021

In most countries, there tends to be a large gap between urban and rural education outcomes. This column examines the impact of a 2004 Chinese education reform that connected high-quality teachers in urban areas with more than 100 million students in rural primary and middle schools through the use of satellite internet. Exposure to the reform in middle school significantly increased students’ academic achievement and their labour outcomes in the long run, suggesting that technology can be an effective way to close the rural–urban gap in education.

Samuel Delpeuch, Etienne Fize, Philippe Martin, 12 February 2021

How much can trade imbalances account for the rise in protectionism of the past ten years? This column reveals that both bilateral and multilateral trade imbalances are strong predictors of protectionist attacks, partly – but not entirely – driven by the US and the Trump years. Moreover, countries with more expansionary fiscal policies react to the ensuing trade imbalance by a more protectionist trade policy. A transatlantic gap in the fiscal response to the COVID crisis may therefore pave the way to renewed trade tensions.

Martin Ravallion, 04 February 2021

The extraordinary reduction in poverty that China underwent after 1980 is often attributed to the pro-market reforms of Deng Xiaoping. This column uses counterfactual analysis – comparing China’s development to neighbouring countries with similar cultures and strong historical ties – to propose a new perspective. When judged against the development of South Korea and Taiwan, the bulk of China’s progress since the reforms began seems mostly a matter of making up for the failures of the preceding 30 years, when Maoist policies left an extra quarter of the Chinese population in poverty.

Chad Bown, Paola Conconi, Aksel Erbahar, Lorenzo Trimarchi, 03 February 2021

In a world in which production processes are fragmented across countries, the effects of tariffs propagate along supply chains, with firms in downstream industries suffering from protection upstream.  This column studies the effects of US antidumping duties applied against China – its most frequent target – over 1988-2016 on US firms in downstream sectors. It finds that tariffs have large negative effects on downstream industries, increasing production costs and decreasing employment, wages, sales, and investment.

Felix Friedt, 17 January 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused one of the most severe contractions in international trade since the Great Trade Collapse, leading to comparisons between the two episodes. While the Great Trade Collapse has been clearly linked to the collapse in international demand, this column argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to impact trade through multiple transmission channels, highlighting the role of global value chains in the transmission. Commercial policy responses to bolster the global economy must, therefore, deviate from demand-centred instruments and consider the dependence on and resilience of global value chains to address the triple pandemic effect.

Adnan Seric, Holger Görg, Wan-Hsin Liu, Michael Windisch, 07 January 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of the global trade network underpinning global value chains. Initial disruptions in the supply chains for key medical goods due to surges in demand and newly erected trade barriers have prompted policymakers around the world to question their country’s reliance on foreign suppliers and international production networks. This column takes a closer look at China’s post-pandemic recovery and argues that its response may hold clues to the future of global value chains.

Kerem Cosar, Benjamin Thomas, 04 January 2021

Open oceans are vital for the transport of a large share of world trade. But they are also frequently at the centre of geopolitical tensions between nation states. This column estimates the economic costs of impeded shipping access in South East Asia. The results of the study suggest that restrictions to shipping due to military sanctions could have large negative effects on economic welfare for countries all over the world, including oil exporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.



CEPR Policy Research