Bastien Chabé-Ferret, Paula Gobbi, 26 January 2019

Between the early 1940s and the late 1960s, the secular decline in fertility that started at the turn of the 19th century in most developed countries was interrupted by a massive baby-boom. This column argues that although much attention has focused on this boom, fertility rates preceding it were abnormally low. The evidence suggests that economic uncertainty can explain a substantial part of the major swings in fertility over the 20th century.

M. Ayhan Kose, Marco Terrones, 18 October 2012

Bouts of elevated uncertainty have been one of the defining features of the sluggish recovery from the global financial crisis. This column explores the role of uncertainty in driving macroeconomic outcomes using data from a large group of advanced countries over the past 40 years. It concludes that uncertainty appears to hinder growth.

Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, 12 January 2009

A key source of the today’s economic weakness is uncertainty that led firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions. This column, by the authors whose model forecast the recession as far back as June 2008, report that the key measures of uncertainty have dropped so rapidly that they believe growth will resume by mid-2009. This means any additional economic stimulus has to be enacted quickly. Delaying to the summer may mean the economic medicine is administered just as the patient is leave the hospital.

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