Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Patrick Honohan, Martin Sandbu, 27 September 2019
Patrick Honohan took over as governor of the Central Bank of Ireland in 2009 with the economy in meltdown, and steered it through its deepest crisis. His new book re-examines what happened, and lessons for future crises. Tim Phillips talks to Patrick and the FT's Martin Sandbu about what policymakers and central bankers can learn from Ireland's ordeal.
Lars Frisell, 07 November 2012
Measuring financial risk is difficult. But what lessons, if any, have we learnt from the current crisis? This column argues against a move to leverage ratios and instead proposes continuing to measure financial risk (despite the difficulties), but with higher capital charges for banks. Focusing on the basics can only bolster central banks’ ability to fulfil their duties – looking for imbalances, and promptly tackling them with informed decisions.
Viral Acharya, Thomas Cooley, Matthew Richardson , Ingo Walter, 15 December 2009
The NYU Stern group – authors of the influential book Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System – have completed a new ebook that assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the US financial reform legislation. This column introduces the new ebook.
Viral Acharya, Matthew Richardson , Ingo Walter, Thomas Cooley, 15 December 2009
The NYU Stern group – authors of the influential book Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System – have completed a new ebook that assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the US financial reform legislation. This column introduces the new ebook.
Willem Buiter, 29 April 2009
Is the global economy turning around? Analysing the situation across the globe, this column concludes that the only reasonably convincing evidence of ‘green shoots’ comes from China – but even that recovery is unlikely to be sustainable due to China's dependency on exports. A global flu pandemic, if it were to occur, would act as a negative supply and demand shock.
Olivier Accominotti, 23 April 2009
China’s “dollar trap” has many analysts worried about its future resolution. This column discusses a similar situation in the 1920s when France held more than half the world’s foreign reserves. France’s “sterling trap” ended disastrously. Sterling suffered a major currency crisis, French authorities lost a lot of money, and subsequent policy reactions deepened the Great Depression.
Biagio Bossone, 21 April 2009
The IMF appointed a committee, chaired by Trevor Manuel, to look into IMF decision making. This column reviews the report, arguing that it misses critical question on Executive Board reform. Without an independent board, the Fund’s skewed voting power tends to produce uneven treatment of members. Decision-making power must ultimately rest with shareholders but they should be advised by an independent board that acts as the voice of the institution and its membership as a whole.
Ricardo Caballero, 20 April 2009
The approaching release of stress-test results is accompanied by widespread fears that the tests are not rigorous enough. This column argues that a modification to the Capital Assistance Programme would neutralise these concerns. Banks should hold the capital implied by the central scenario, and buy government insurance to cover more extreme outcomes, thus taking the aggregate risk off the leveraged institutions and breaking the link between bad economic news and the financial sector’s health.
Barry Eichengreen, Kevin O'Rourke, 08 March 2010
This column updates the original Vox columns by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke comparing today’s global crisis to the Great Depression. The three previous columns have shattered all Vox readership records with over 450,000 views. This latest edition covers up to February 2010 showing that, while there is cause for optimism, there is no room for complacency.
Guillermo Calvo, 06 April 2009
The G20 communiqué revealed a clear attitude towards chain-reaction crises. Here one of the world’s most experienced and insightful crisis-watchers argues the G20 communiqué reflects a major improvement in the way leaders view financial crises – moving away from the view that blames the victims and towards a view that recognizes systemic crises and chain-reaction accidents involving many innocent bystanders.
Richard Baldwin, 04 April 2009
G20 leaders made a number of commitments on trade in their London Communiqué. This column argues that the anti-protection pledge is more credible than the one agreed in the Washington Declaration. The commitment on the Doha Round, by contrast, was pitiful.
Jeffrey Sachs, 03 April 2009
The G20 is an accomplishment beyond what many expected. This column argues, however, that G20 actions will not stop the recession and that the policy framework adopted is only a sketch. There is hard work ahead translating the G20 achievements into practical action. Communiqués are but a start, not a finish, of the process of true global cooperation.
Avinash Persaud, 03 April 2009
Did the Summit succeed? This column argues that the G20 Summit is not the turning point, but it provides the strongest reason yet to be less pessimistic. The commitments may leave plenty of room for the devil to make mischief with, but it is hard to think what more the G20 could have done. Gordon Brown has pulled some large rabbits from his hat.
Charles Wyplosz, 03 April 2009
Did the Summit succeed? This column argues that, except for the promises of more resources for the IMF, the summit did not move the agenda forward. Doing more was probably impossible, but now national governments must do more at home, and very urgently. It would be a tragedy if the Summit outcome encouraged complacency.
L Alan Winters, 02 April 2009
The crisis, started by rich nations, is now harming developing nations. In this column, Alan Winters – one of the world’s leading trade and development economists and now chief economist of the UK’s Department for International Development – argues that Summit commitments show that development and developing countries are at the heart of G20 leaders’ vision for the twenty-first century.
Jonathan Portes, 02 April 2009
The long awaited London Summit of G20 leaders took place on April 2. This column – written by a senior economist working within the UK government on the Summit – sets out the background, what was agreed, and what will happen as a result.
Daniel Gros, Ulrich Klüh, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 01 April 2009
The world needs a watchdog institution for global economic stability. Most agree that the IMF is the only serious candidate, but IMF management and staff need more independence. This column argues that this could be achieved by having separate Executive Board voting procedures for lending and analytic decisions, and some independent members on the Board.
Keiichiro Kobayashi, 01 April 2009
Bad debt is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.
Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, 30 March 2009
This column proposes the launch of a WTO Crisis Round at the G20 summit. Unlike the Doha round’s liberalising agenda, such a crisis round would simply aim to “hold the line on protectionism” and prevent a retreat from current levels of trade openness. This column that says that such action is necessary for the global trading system to survive these “potentially perilous times.”
Richard Baldwin, 29 March 2009
As the crisis evolves, capital will flow out of emerging countries. The IMF's new facility may help with short term shocks. It is also a useful step towards risk pooling and away from self-insurance with large currency reserves and should thus help reduce global imbalances in the long run.
