Plamen Iossifov, Jiří Podpiera, 16 February 2015

The ongoing, synchronised disinflation across Europe raises the question of whether non-Eurozone EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the Eurozone inflation target, by other global factors, or by synchronised domestic, real sector developments. This column argues that falling world food and energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. However, countries with more rigid exchange-rate regimes and/or higher shares of foreign value added in domestic demand have also been affected by disinflationary spillovers from the Eurozone.

Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 07 February 2013

Commodity price shocks are frequently considered among the most important potential threats to the global economy. However, since the second half of the 1980s, energy prices have experienced very large changes, with arguably limited effects on global GDP developments. This column presents evidence that oil shocks just aren’t what they used to be when it comes to macroeconomic effects.

Lutz Kilian, 29 June 2012

It has long been argued that changes in the price of oil can help forecast US real GDP growth. This column addresses the common concern among many policymakers that the feedback from oil prices to the economy may become stronger once the price of oil reaches a certain level.

Natalie Chen, Liam Graham, Andrew Oswald, 17 August 2008

Higher energy prices are likely to reduce profitability of industry and thus could bring about an economic downturn. The authors of DP 6937 experiment with terrorist acts as an instrumental variable, in order to examine the relationship between the price of oil, terrorist incidents and the resultant effects on profitability and margins.

Paul Edelstein, Lutz Kilian, 06 June 2007

Detailed date energy prices and consumer spending in the US from 1970 to 2006 show exactly how oil price changes affect the economy. The declining size of the US auto sector helped to contain the effects of recent oil shocks on the wider economy.


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