Reshad N Ahsan, Laura Panza, Yong Song, 18 April 2020

While the relationship between trade and war is ambiguous, some argue that diminished trade can pose a threat to global peace by lowering both the opportunity costs of war and the cost of raising an army. This column examines the relationship between Atlantic trade and war in Europe between 1640 and 1896, a period in which intra-European conflict decreased dramatically. It finds that the growth in Atlantic trade lowered the probability of intra-European conflict by 15 percentage points.

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Marko Stermšek, 21 November 2014

One frequently used argument in favour of secession is that there are economic benefits from independence. However, whether or not this is the case remains largely unexplored. This column addresses this question by examining the economic implications of secession in the case of the former Yugoslavia. The authors find that independence had no favourable economic impact. The way secession was achieved, however, mattered. Whereas secession without real conflict did not leave any noticeable economic impact, violent secession has, by contrast, led to a significant destruction of wealth. 

Ju Hyun Pyun, Jong-Wha Lee, 21 March 2009

This column claims that bilateral trade interdependence reduces the probability of inter-state military conflict. Moreover, global trade openness lowers the probability of conflict with the bilateral trade partner by a larger magnitude than bilateral trade does alone.


CEPR Policy Research