Máximo Camacho, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Pilar Poncela, 03 April 2012

This column develops an early warning system to capture the trembling of the Eurozone economy before anyone else notices it, as seismologists do with earthquakes. It shows that the latest forecast suggests reductions in recession probabilities and that the crisis resolution mechanism could be behind this increase in confidence. Therefore, it seems that the Eurozone faced a short-lived double-dip recession.

Robert J. Gordon, 01 May 2009

When will the US economy turn around? World renown macroeconomist Bob Gordon – a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee since 1978 – documents a surprisingly robust link between the business cycle trough and the lagged peak in unemployment claims. According to this link, springtime for the US economy is just around the corner.

Willem Buiter, 29 April 2009

Is the global economy turning around? Analysing the situation across the globe, this column concludes that the only reasonably convincing evidence of ‘green shoots’ comes from China – but even that recovery is unlikely to be sustainable due to China's dependency on exports. A global flu pandemic, if it were to occur, would act as a negative supply and demand shock.

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