Elena Bobeica, Benny Hartwig, Christiane Nickel, 20 August 2021

The initially muted reaction of euro area inflation to the recent recession suggests that the Phillips curve is flat or may have flattened during the pandemic. This column argues that the assessment of the Phillips curve has become more complicated due to numerous confounding factors. It discusses evidence that underlying inflationary pressures have been dampened by the build-up of slack, and that models accounting for tail events reveal more stable Phillips curve parameters. Despite the many confounding factors, it seems that the Phillips curve is still at play – even if it is hard to pin down precisely.

Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke, 20 May 2021

Debt-financed fiscal expansions have been a critical feature in many countries’ policy response to Covid-19. This column revisits the role of public debt in stimulating economic recovery. The authors identify both short-run and long-run effects, highlighting that higher public debt has small effects on the capital stock but leads to a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. Further, the revenue-maximising level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60% of GDP post-2010.

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The Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) in the School of Economics, University of Surrey, will hold an online summer school on Macroeconomics and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modelling followed by a one-day conference from September 7 to 15, 2021.

The foundations and advanced courses will run in parallel for four days from 7-10 September.
These courses are aimed at PhD students, MSc or MRES students aiming to proceed to a PhD, as well as early career researchers and research staff from central banks, ministries, and the private sector. Then on days 5 and 6, September 13 and 14, participants will be able to choose one of several one-day standalone courses. The conference takes place on September 15.

We are now accepting applications and we would appreciate if you would like to participate or if you could kindly share this email with colleagues who may be interested.

More information is available in the following link:
https://www.surrey.ac.uk/centre-international-macroeconomic-studies/summ...

Nicolas Woloszko, 19 December 2020

A pre-requisite for good macroeconomic policymaking is timely information on the current state of the economy, particularly when economic activity is changing rapidly. Given that GDP figures are usually only available on a quarterly basis, the current crisis has prompted a search for alternative high‑frequency indicators of economic activity. This column presents evidence from a new tracker developed by OECD which uses Google Trends and machine learning to provide real-time estimates of GDP growth in countries all over the world.

Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo , Arnaud Mehl, Tra Nguyen, 09 October 2020

Most global trade transactions are invoiced in just a few currencies, regardless of the countries involved in the transaction. This column presents a new dataset that offers a comprehensive and up-to-date understanding of trade invoicing patterns within the major currencies. It finds that vehicle currency use has been on the rise, with dollar invoicing increasing over time despite the decline in the share of global trade accounted for by the US, and euro invoicing also rising among certain countries (typically at the expense of the dollar). 

Silvana Tenreyro, 04 September 2020

Understanding the nature of the global economy remains an important and interesting topic of discussion for both policymakers and researchers. This column presents a summary of two recent evaluations of aspects of the open economy. The author summarises work concerning global currencies and trading networks, offering insights into how the research agenda on each area may evolve over the coming years. 

Dirk Niepelt, 22 June 2020

Notoriously inconclusive policy recommendations and the failure to foresee the Great Recession have caused many commentators to voice doubts about the usefulness of macroeconomics. This column argues that macroeconomics can offer a coherent framework to understand and evaluate policy options, but macroeconomists need to explain the field’s subject matter and findings better to both policymakers and the general public. A new textbook aims at closing the gulf between macroeconomic research and widespread misconceptions about it by providing a concise and rigorous introduction to modern macroeconomic theory.

Masayuki Morikawa, 10 February 2020

Although long-term macroeconomic forecasts substantially affect the sustainability of government debt and the social security system, they cannot avoid significant uncertainty. This column assesses whether academic researchers in economics make accurate long-term growth forecasts, comparing ten-year growth forecasts made by Japanese economists in 2006–2007 with the realised figures. Even excluding the years affected by the Global Crisis, the results show that forecasts tend to be biased upwards and involve significant uncertainty, even for economics researchers specialising in macroeconomics or economic growth.

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The objective of this event is to bring distinguished researchers in Macroeconomics in the relaxed and fruitful atmosphere of Salento, the peninsula located in the southernmost region of Apulia, Italy. The Programme Committee welcomes submissions of theoretical or empirical papers addressing issues including (but not limited to):

  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy
  • International macroeconomics
  • Imperfect information
  • Heterogeneity, search and matching

The deadline for paper submissions is 31 March 2019.

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The workshop will feature a keynote by Per Krusell (Stockholm University and CEPR), who will discuss his work on the role of economic analysis in combatting climate change. Researchers are invited to submit papers on the economics of commodities (including energy, metals, and agricultural products) and their interaction with the economy.

Papers submission deadline: May 1, 2019. Please send drafts of completed papers to [email protected].

Scientific committee:
Martin Bodenstein (FRB), Deepa Datta (FRB), Marco Lombardi (BIS), Matteo Luciani (FRB), Massimiliano Pisani (Banca d'Italia), Frauke Skudelny (ECB) Livio Stracca (ECB), Martin Stuermer (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Fabrizio Venditti (ECB) Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia), and Robert Vigfusson (FRB).

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Submissions are sought on the following themes:
• Digital currencies, fintech, and technology
• Regulation, markets, and financial intermediation
• International economics
• Macroeconomics, monetary policy, macrofinance, monetary policy frameworks, and communication
• Inflation dynamics
• Policy lessons from the history of finance and central banking
The deadline for submissions is Saturday, February 2nd.
The meeting commences on Thursday, July 18 at the FRB New York, featuring presentations by Nellie Liang and Jeremy C. Stein, and John C. Williams.
The 31 contributed sessions take place on Friday and Saturday, July 19-20 at the Kellogg Center, SIPA, Columbia University. Contributed sessions are organized by BIS, FSB, IMF, SNB, FRB St. Louis, Bank of Israel, FRB Cleveland, ECB, Riksbank, FRB San Francisco, Norges Bank, Bank of Spain, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Bank of Korea, OeNB, FRB Minneapolis, Bundesbank, Central Bank of Ireland, SAFE, CEPR, ABFER, and IBRN.

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The objective of the Systemic Risk and Prudential Policy course is to present state of the frontier research on systemic risk and to illustrate its implications for micro and macro prudential regulation as well as monetary and competition policy.
The course covers the main models of systemic risk proposed in the literature and the quantitative techniques for the measurement and prediction of systemic risk.

The course provides a critical summary of the prudential regulation initiatives for systemic risk, highlighting the limitations of current prudential policy, the potential of the new macroprudential approach, and the costs and benefits of the proposed policy measures.

Additionally, the course examines the rise of shadow banks, the role of banks as providers of liquidity insurance, and the interaction between securitization and systemic risk.

Simon Wren-Lewis, 20 June 2018

Thorsten Beck, 01 June 2018

Roger Farmer, 11 April 2018

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The European Association of Young Economists (EAYE), in collaboration with Leipzig University, is pleased to announce that the 1st EAYE Workshop will take place at Leipzig University on September 10-11, 2018.

Since the Great Recession, research on housing and macroeconomics has become a highly relevant and vibrant research field within macroeconomics. What drives house-price fluctuations? How do pronounced fluctuations in house prices and housing credit affect the real economy? What explains the long run dynamics of house prices? The aim of the workshop is to bring together young economists, as well as a few distinguished senior researchers, that work on these pressing questions and on housing and macroeconomics in general.

We are delighted to announce that two keynote lectures will be given by Alberto Martín (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE, CEPR) and Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, CEPR).

The submission deadline is June 7, 2018.

Wendy Carlin, David Soskice, 23 January 2018

Following the post-financial crisis recession, the UK and other high-income countries have experienced slow growth and stagnant productivity, along with both low inflation and, more recently, low unemployment. This column introduces an intuitive macroeconomic model that helps explain this puzzling combination.

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