Arash Nekoei, Andrea Weber, 01 July 2020

Temporary layoffs have exploded during the COVID-19 pandemic. This column analyses temporary layoffs in Austrian data and argues that the share of temporary layoffs contains information about employers’ forecasts of the future of their businesses.

Olivier Blanchard, 27 February 2017

Why is it that demand growth is not stronger? In this video, Olivier Blanchard discusses his research on long-run forecasts and unexpected decreases in consumption. This video was recorded at the American Economic Association in Chicago in January 2017.

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 07 December 2015

The analysis and forecasts of the IMF are well covered in the press. This column deals with a less noted development in the data provided by the IMF, namely the nominal decrease in Gross Planet Product. Since the IMF forecast both positive growth and positive inflation, the nominal shrinkage of GPP puts into question the consistency of the IMF World Economic Outlook data and forecasts.

Tilman Bletzinger, Volker Wieland, 05 September 2013

The ECB has promised to keep interest rates low for an “extended period of time”. In a broad hint to the profession, President Draghi stressed a reasonable forecast of this period could be extracted from a monetary policy reaction function. This column presents one such forecast based on published macro forecasts and a reaction function that fits the ECB’s past behaviour. The result is that ECB interest rates will rise by May 2014 at the latest.

Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, 23 April 2012

The world economy is showing scattered signs of improvement but remains fragile according to official forecasts. This column summarises the latest update of the Brookings Institution-FT Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery. It confirms some positive signs but also much to worry about as the world economy continues to meander with no clear sense of direction.

Antonello D’Agostino, Paolo Surico, 18 April 2011

What does inflation predictability reveal about the conduct of monetary policy? This column examines the ability of money growth and output growth to forecast inflation across a century of US data. It uncovers a robust link between the nature of the monetary regimes and the ability to predict inflation several quarters ahead.

Thomas Sargent, Martin Ellison, 24 November 2009

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has been criticised for making forecasts that are inferior to Federal Reserve staff forecasts. This column argues that FOMC forecasts are worst-case scenarios used to inform policy decisions, rather than best estimates of future events. It says that FOMC forecasts are a rational response to doubts about the staff’s model.

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, Saverio Simonelli, 23 November 2009

The UK’s early estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2009 still shows negative growth with a reading of -0.4%. This column combines the quarterly releases of GDP with timely survey data to form a “now-cast” of quarterly GDP growth. It says that the UK has likely exited the recession already, estimating positive growth of 0.15%.


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