Alain De Crombrugghe, Eric De Keuleneer, 15 March 2012

Even with the latest bailout and debt restructuring, Greek debt is still projected to be 120% of GDP by 2020. With no access to foreign markets, Greece will have to fund any future deficits by calling on more funds from foreign governments or international institutions. This column suggests a novel solution: force ordinary Greeks to save some of their earnings by purchasing government bonds.

Paolo Manasse, 10 March 2012

A day after the largest restructuring of government debt in history, this column provides two lessons to take away from the noise.

Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Mitu Gulati, 05 March 2012

One of the most interesting questions arising from the ongoing Greek debt restructuring is what it implies about the feasibility of voluntary debt restructurings. Indeed, why would anyone voluntarily take a debt-exchange offer that promises a large reduction in repayments? This column argues creditors might feel safer with new debt instruments issued under English law than with old Greek-law regulated ones.

Jacob Kirkegaard, 01 March 2012

Brinkmanship has produced an early-morning deal in Europe to extend a new lifeline to Greece and clear the way for the biggest sovereign bond restructuring in history. This column takes a detailed look at the EU deal, the ongoing brinkmanship between the Eurozone and the IMF, and the general focus on austerity.

Jakob de Haan, Mark Mink, 23 February 2012

Since 2010, Eurozone countries have engaged in unprecedented rescue operations to avoid contagion from a potential Greek sovereign default. This column argues that news about Greek public finances does not affect Eurozone bank stock prices, while news about a Greek bailout does. This suggests that markets consider news about a Greek bailout to be a signal of Eurozone countries’ willingness to use public funds to combat the financial crisis.

Willem Buiter, 20 February 2012

Willem Buiter talks to Viv Davies about Greece and the Eurozone. Buiter believes that Greece’s public debt should be written off, it’s banks recapitalised and that the country be provided with sufficient conditional support to grow its economy. They discuss the LTROs and the risks of loss of control over the aggregate size of the balance sheet and potential national central bank insolvencies. Buiter suggests that now is not the time for self-righteousness amongst European policymakers. The interview was recorded on 17 Feb 2012. [Also read the transcript]

Luigi Guiso, Helios Herrera, Massimo Morelli, 25 January 2012

What good might come from Europe’s crisis? Profligate governments in Italy and Greece, while pandering to the masses, have left their countries with crippling debt. This column draws parallels with Latin America and argues that the current hardship may sound a death knell for populism in southern Europe, as it has elsewhere.

Richard Portes, Dimitri Vayanos, Michael G Jacobides, 30 November 2011

After a period of intense political turmoil, Greece has converged on a coalition government tasked with implementing reforms. This column argues Greece should now change from fiscal targets and debt restructuring to operational restructuring. It proposes three independent authorities with tight governance and accountability to manage healthcare procurement, monitor structural reforms, and fight corruption.

Dimitri Vayanos, 11 November 2011

Dimitri Vayanos of the London School of Economics talks to Viv Davies about Greece and the eurozone crisis, and argues that leaving the euro would be a disaster for both Greece and Europe. They discuss the bailout package, the appointment of Lucas Papademos as Prime Minister and the benefits of a coalition government of technocrats. Vayanos maintains that the emphasis for Greece should be on deeper institutional and structural reforms. The interview was recorded on 10 November 2011.

Charles Wyplosz, 04 November 2011

Greek Prime Minister Papandreou made a stand this week. Even though he was backed down, this column argues that he did the EZ a favour by providing an opportunity to change course. One way or another, a disorderly Greek default is in the cards with its attendant contagion. At that point a real solution is inevitable – one that requires EZ leaders and the ECB to play on the same side with credible rules for all.

Paolo Manasse, 14 October 2011

Markets are already prepared for a Greek default. This column says the real question is not whether Greece will default – it is how big a haircut will be imposed on creditors and what the consequences will be.

Angelo Baglioni, Umberto Cherubini, 12 October 2011

One of the main objections to the idea of euro bonds is that Germany would be guaranteeing the debt of Greece, among other cross-country subsidies between the core and the periphery. This column argues that this need not be the case.

Jean-Charles Bricongne, 11 October 2011

A Greek default is widely expected. This column outlines a “win-win” strategy for restructuring Greek debt that it argues would minimise the impact of a default and buy Greece and the rest of Europe some precious time.

Aaron Tornell, Frank Westermann, 28 September 2011

With economists’ eyes fixed squarely on Greece, this column tries to solve a puzzle. Since 2008, tens of billions of euros have fled Greek bank accounts. Yet somehow the country still has a current-account deficit. Where has this money come from?

Daniel Gros, 24 August 2011

Eurobonds are being touted as the silver bullet to resolve the Eurozone crisis. This column argues that the Eurobonds proposal fails on legal, political, and economic grounds. It says that, whatever the variant, Eurobonds only make sense in a political union—and given the vast differences in national political systems and their quality of governance, any political union created on paper will not work in practice.

Miguel Kiguel, 16 August 2011

A decade ago Argentina was in the midst of a severe economic crisis. This column argues that the episode offers lessons for the Eurozone today. Unless Greece takes major steps to improve its competitiveness and growth prospects, the country has little hope to get out of this crisis.

Elias Papaioannou, Dimitri Vayanos, 13 August 2011

Greece’s bailout plan – agreed more than a year ago – is failing to meet some of its key objectives. This column argues that the ECB, EU, and IMF should be wary of focusing on short-term goals and instead strive for an institutional framework that can drive the long-term growth of the Greek economy.

David Vines, 05 August 2011

David Vines of Oxford University talks to Viv Davies about the recovery prospects for Greece following the country’s second bailout. They discuss the challenges of asymmetric monetary union, Eurobonds, the peripheral economies and the current situation in Italy. Vines presents the case for stronger fiscal management and political leadership. The interview was recorded on 2 August 2011. [Also read the transcript.]

Marga Peeters, Loek Groot, 02 August 2011

Fiscal pressure from demographic changes is mounting across the globe. This column asks whether labour markets will create enough jobs. Cross-country comparisons suggest that, until at least 2050, the countries most under pressure will be Poland, Turkey, and Greece.

Ricardo Cabral, 29 July 2011

On 21 July 2011, the Council of the EU agreed to a second bailout for Greece. The deal was predicated on “private-sector involvement”. This column explores what this actually means. It estimates that the haircut for private bondholders may well be one-third of the figure initially proposed. It stresses that such uncertainties could spell more trouble for Greece and Europe as a whole.

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