Domingo Cavallo, Fernando Díaz, 17 February 2011

With growing inflation in China, policymakers are facing tough decisions. This column argues that if the government is to curb inflation without allowing for the deflation of the tradables, it should do so though sector focused policies. Monetary policy is already committed to the objective of preventing deflation of the tradables and to dampen the credit cycle that is behind asset bubbles.

Avinash Persaud, 16 February 2011

Criticism of China’s exchange-rate policy continues throughout the US. This column argues that the US is in fact the exchange rate manipulator, due to its ongoing quantitative easing. What the US needs to do for a sustainable turnaround is to learn from other successful economies like China and Germany – not de-rail them.

Marcos Chamon, Kai Liu, Eswar Prasad, 18 January 2011

In an effort to reduce its sizeable current-account surplus, the Chinese government has made it a priority to “rebalance” growth in China by stoking private consumption. This column examines the determinants of the high household saving rate that keeps Chinese consumption so low.

Uri Dadush, Vera Eidelman, 20 December 2010

Today’s currency tensions are the result of a complex set of forces arising from the Great Recession. This column presents lessons from the break-up of the gold standard and of the fixed-rate dollar standard. While competitive devaluations are less likely today than is commonly feared, there is no room for complacency.

Uri Dadush, Shimelse Ali, 09 December 2010

If China appreciates its currency, who will gain and who will lose out? This column argues that the single greatest beneficiary from a gradual renminbi revaluation, accompanied by measures to stimulate demand, will be China itself. Ironically, the US, which has been leading the charge on renminbi appreciation, would likely be among the losers. Certainly, a very large one-off revaluation that disrupts China’s growth hurts everyone.

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, 04 December 2010

What factors determined the fiscal expansion seen in many developed countries in 2009? This column finds that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis, higher GDP per capita, more financial exposure to the US, and lower trade openness were all associated with a larger fiscal stimulus relative to GDP and that more open economies may have relied more on exchange-rate depreciation.

Venkatachalam Shunmugam, Debojyoti Dey, 03 December 2010

Politicians, public servants, and commentators have been queuing up in recent months to raise their concerns about global imbalances, particularly the China-US imbalance. This column argues that while the two economies may present opposing public stances, they are quietly playing a tango that neither can step out of.

Ajai Chopra, Bas Bakker, 16 November 2010

The crisis in Europe is more commonly used to refer to debt crises in southern Europe than elsewhere. This column focuses on central and eastern Europe, arguing that while the crisis there was triggered by external shocks, it is clear that domestic imbalances and policies also played a key role.

Biagio Bossone, 15 November 2010

The G20 meeting in Seoul last week still leaves many issues unresolved. This column addresses the G20 leaders and calls for global governance that can meet the needs of a global economy.

Andreas Freytag, Stan du Plessis, 12 November 2010

President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, caused a stir this week by hinting at a need to return to the gold standard. While supporting the drive for pro-growth policies and the desire to maintain an open international trade system, this column argues that a return to gold would struggle to achieve this and could even be a destabilising force.

Richard Portes, 04 November 2010

The threat of a currency war between the US and China is one of the main concerns for the G20 ahead of this month’s meeting in Seoul. This column say that while policymakers appear to grasp some of the issues, they underestimate the impact of quantitative easing by large economies on exchange rates worldwide.

Philippe Legrain, 02 November 2010

While the debate over global imbalances often focuses on China, this column argues that the biggest threat to the world economy comes from the other side of the seesaw – the US.

Volker Nitsch, Helge Berger, 02 November 2010

What can policymakers do to redress the global imbalances? This column presents evidence from 18 European countries over the past 60 years. It finds that while permanently fixed nominal exchange rates often result in large and lasting trade imbalances, these imbalances usually reflect a difference in trade competitiveness that can be addressed through structural and macroeconomic policies.

Fred Bergsten, 01 November 2010

Yiping Huang recently argued that the US would not win a currency war over global imbalances. This column agrees that a currency or trade war would be lose-lose. But it says that such a conflict is inevitable unless the root causes of the growing imbalances are addressed

Helmut Reisen, 01 November 2010

The debate over global imbalances has a sharp focus on China. But this column says the debate is missing a crucial point: that China’s growth has been good for poor countries, so that a renminbi appreciation slowing Chinese growth will also hurt many other poor economies.

Alan Auerbach, Maurice Obstfeld, 23 October 2010

As the debate over China’s exchange-rate policy and the US response intensifies, this column argues that a large Chinese revaluation – whether forced of voluntary – will not be a free lunch for the US. Drawing on a theoretical cost-benefit analysis, it suggests that if the US wants to create jobs at the lowest costs, it should first consider further fiscal expansion.

Joshua Aizenman, Jaewoo Lee, Vladyslav Sushko, 22 October 2010

Exchange-rate policy is emerging as one of the most controversial issues from the global crisis. This column looks at how emerging markets have responded to exchange-rate pressures over the last decade. Among its findings is that emerging markets’ hoarding of international reserves is far better explained by financial factors than by trade concerns, both before and during the crisis.

Yiping Huang, 20 October 2010

On 19 October, the Chinese central bank announced a series of rate hikes. This column argues that the moves were aimed at combating domestic inflation and addressing the risks of an asset bubble.

Olivier Blanchard, 12 October 2010

A “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery” as demanded by the G20 is a daunting challenge for policymakers. This column argues that two rebalancing acts are required: internal rebalancing – replacing government spending with private-sector demand, and external rebalancing – addressing the global imbalances between exporting and importing countries. These two rebalancing acts, it adds, are taking too long.

Gérard Roland, 09 October 2010

How should China respond to the threat of tariffs from the US? This column provides a solution that could result in the desired appreciation of the renminbi and at the same time allow China to take the lead on climate change.

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