Akvile Bertasiute, Domenico Massaro, Matthias Weber, 07 July 2018

A key critique of commonly used macroeconomic models is their reliance on the assumption of rational expectations. This column addresses this concern with a model of currency unions wherein expectations are formed through behavioural reinforcement learning, that is, learning from past mistakes. The model suggests that economic integration is of crucial importance to the functioning of a currency union. Monetary policy, in contrast, can only play a limited stabilising role.

László Bruszt, Nauro Campos, 17 November 2017

The many benefits and costs of economic integration are notoriously difficult to pinpoint. This column introduces new institutional measures for 17 EU candidate countries since 1997 to explore whether deep integration helps the build-up of state capacity. Estimates highlight the relationship between judiciary capacity and bureaucratic independence as the key engine behind state capacity-building engendered by the prospect of EU membership.

Samuel Bentolila, Juan Dolado, 23 May 2017

Almost 20 years after CEPR published “Social Europe: One for All?”, Social Europe has moved again to the top of the policy agenda. In this column, two of the authors revisit their report and argue that the challenges posed by the Global Crisis, the deepening of the inter­nal market, globalisation, technological progress, popu­lation ageing, and the refugee crisis now require a more effective strat­egy to strengthen the EU social acquis.

Jean-Pierre Danthine, 12 April 2017

In this column, Jean-Pierre Danthine, a co-author of "Making Sense of Subsidiarity: How Much Centralization for Europe?", revisits the report nearly 25 years on from its publication. He examines the main themes of the report and shows how such areas as centralisation/decentralisation, subsidiarity, and macroeconomic stabilisation have played out over the years since the report was published. He concludes that the report was both prescient and, at the same time, represents a view from the past of the 'road not taken'.

Randolph Bruno, Nauro Campos, Saul Estrin, Meng Tian, 05 May 2016

The current Brexit debate has highlighted questions about the benefits and costs of EU membership. This column considers the effect of membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using several measures, EU membership is found to increase FDI inflows by 14–38% between 1985 and 2013. These results support arguments for economic integration, and indicate that, like international trade, FDI is a key channel through which payoffs are delivered.

Paul Sharp, 16 May 2008

Economic globalisation is a political phenomenon. This column presents new evidence on the Anglo-American wheat trade in the eighteenth century and explains how politics, war, and natural disasters thwarted economic integration.

Marco Buti, Adriaan Dierx, Fabienne Ilzkovitz, Nuno Sousa, 13 December 2007

The EU has adopted a new approach to completing the Single Market. Choice of policy measures are not made ex-ante, but rather ex-post, following a period of market monitoring and analysis. Here are some of the new market-monitoring tools to be used.

Giuseppe Bertola, 11 October 2007

Empirical research shows that EMU improves economic performance, but is also associated with higher inequality and lower social spending. This casts doubt on the political sustainability of EMU without social-policy integration and much deeper financial market development. Thinking about EMU’s future, it would be wrong and dangerous to disregard the implications for income inequality and its remedies.

Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer, Mathias Thoenig, 04 July 2007

Using a large dataset of military conflicts, trade created by regional trade agreements is shown to be pacifying, but greater overall openness has the opposite effect. Logically, this means that bilateral trade pacifies bilateral relations, but raises the chance of conflict with third countries.


CEPR Policy Research