Raphael Auer, Barthélémy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko, 07 February 2019

The tide has turned in international trade, with watershed political moments across the world showing the growing popularity of protectionist measures. This column analyses the relationship between the distributional effects of trade and voting patterns by modelling a scenario in which NAFTA is dismantled. It finds that the areas that voted most overwhelmingly for the Trump administration are the same as those that would experience the greatest wage decreases if NAFTA were to be revoked, due to the strong correlation in areas that face import competition from and export exposure to NAFTA partners.

David Autor, 15 November 2018

Do trade and technology harm jobs? David Autor of MIT argues that we shouldn't mix the two as their effects are very different. Autor was giving the Economic Journal keynote lecture at the RES conference 2014.

Martina F. Ferracane, Janez Kren, Erik van der Marel, 25 October 2018

Countries are increasingly imposing new data policies which restrict both the domestic use of data and the flow of data across borders. This column uses an index of data policy restrictiveness for 64 major economies to demonstrate that restrictions that apply to the cross-border movement of data have an inhibiting effect on trade in services and, to a lesser extent, on the productivity of local companies and industries. Policies targeting the use of data, on the other hand, are found to have a comparably larger effect on productivity.

David Jacks, John Tang, 21 October 2018

Foreign goods and workers are regularly blamed when the national economy is performing poorly. Economic theory suggests that trade and migration are substitutes – one can import cheaper products from a trade partner, or one can import the foreign workers themselves to narrow the difference in international factor prices. Yet, empirically this is not obvious. Based on available long-run data for international trade and migration since the late 19th century for the US and Canada, this column finds that during the interwar period, trade and immigration did in fact appear to be substitutes.

Erik Brynjolfsson, Xiang Hui, Meng Liu, 16 September 2018

Recent years have seen dramatic progress in the predictive power of artificial intelligence in many areas, including speech recognition, but empirical evidence documenting its concrete economic effects is largely lacking. This column analyses the effect of the introduction of eBay Machine Translation on eBay’s international trade. The results show that it increased US exports on eBay to Spanish-speaking Latin American countries by 17.5%. By overriding trade-hindering language barriers, AI is already affecting productivity and trade and has significant potential to increase them further.

Jan Bakker, Stephan Maurer, Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Ferdinand Rauch, 23 August 2018

Economists often point out the benefits of trade, yet empirical evidence for these benefits has been hard to come by and tends to be recent. This column goes back to the first millennium BC to analyse the growth effects of one of the first major trade expansions in human history: the systematic crossing of the open sea in the Mediterranean by the Phoenicians. A strong positive relationship between connectedness and archaeological sites suggests a large role for geography and trade in development even at such an early juncture in history.

Christopher Parsons, Pierre-Louis Vézina, 15 August 2018

One of the largest refugee waves in recent history was that of the Vietnamese boat people. This column examines the long-run effect of the resettlement of Vietnamese refugees across the US on exports from the US to Vietnam. The first wave of refugees in 1975 was followed by a 20-year trade embargo on Vietnam. Following the lifting of sanctions, the share of US exports going to Vietnam was higher and more diversified in the states with larger Vietnamese populations. This evidence of the pro-trade effect of immigrants is a reminder that hosting refugees can represent an investment in the future.

Alessandro Barattieri, Matteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, 10 August 2018

Populist politicians argue that protectionism stimulates the domestic economy. This column uses data on temporary trade barriers from antidumping investigations to show that when small open economies have imposed protectionist measures, it has caused inflation to rise and real economic activity to fall. Empirical analysis and model-based exercises show that protectionism is costly even when used temporarily, even for economies stuck in liquidity traps, and regardless of the flexibility of the exchange rate.

Edith Laget, Alberto Osnago, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, 14 July 2018

The making and unmaking of trade agreements affects global production. This column reveals how deeper agreements have boosted countries’ participation in global value chains and helped them integrate in industries with higher levels of value added. Investment and competition now drive global value chain participation in North-South relationships, while removing traditional barriers remains important for South-South relationships.

Natalie Chen, Dennis Novy, 09 July 2018

Currency unions usually go hand in hand with deeper economic integration. But does that automatically mean more international trade? This column shows that since the end of WWII, currency unions have on average been associated with 40% more trade between member countries. The ‘thin’ relationships between countries who do not trade much with each other benefit the most from currency unions, with little in the way of a boost for more established trading relationships. 

Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò, Gino Gancia, 10 June 2018

To date there has been little systematic evidence on the role of firms in explaining country performance. This column explores how the products of firms from all over the globe fare in competition in the US market. Results show that the countries that capture larger market shares have more exporters, producing higher-quality products, with a more dispersed distribution of firm attributes. Larger and richer markets are characterised by a more dispersed distribution of sales and quality, and a higher incidence of superstar firms.

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe, Kevin O'Rourke, 22 May 2018

The literature has identified several stylised facts which characterise the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. This column uses detailed, commodity-specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933 to document several similarities between the trade collapses of the Great Depression and the Great Recession. The findings are in line with theories emphasising the composition of expenditure changes during major economic crises, or the relative sizes of firms operating closer to or further away from the margin between exporting or not.

Kyle Bagwell, Robert Staiger, Ali Yurukoglu, 17 May 2018

It is widely accepted that the most-favoured nation rule – a fundamental feature of WTO negotiations – has both advantages and disadvantages. This column considers the empirical outcomes of tariff bargaining under the most-favoured nation rule versus outcomes where this rule is abandoned. It finds that the rule substantially increases welfare at the global level.

Barry Eichengreen, 06 April 2018

Problems that have recently been faced by Europe's financial system - from highly variable exchange rates to disrupted trade flows - also plagued advanced economies a century ago. Barry Eichengreen compares the problems of the Gold Standard to the European Monetary System, and the euro area. 

Vito Amendolagine, Andrea Presbitero, Roberta Rabellotti, Marco Sanfilippo, 24 January 2018

A new wave of foreign direct investment has swept sub-Saharan African countries, with inflows becoming more diversified both geographically and sectorally. This column presents an analysis that shows a high degree of complementarity between involvement in global value chains and FDI. Policies supporting the entry and upgrading of countries in such chains – especially via a strong institutional setting and a well-educated labour force – can help maximise the spillovers from foreign investment.

Koji Ito, Ivan Deseatnicov, Kyoji Fukao, 23 January 2018

The study of global value chains has become increasingly relevant as production becomes more and more fragmented across countries. This column uses evidence from Japan to evaluate recent theories that such chains have caused some of the country’s industries to become less competitive. The findings suggest that considering production for exports and domestic sales separately may provide a more complete picture of firm heterogeneity within industries, and a more complete picture of interconnected countries at the industry level.

Prateek Raj, 04 January 2018

In medieval Europe, trade depended on personal relationships, which were usually mediated by merchant guilds. The column argues that increasing incentives to do business with merchants outside the guild system, and the availability of better information about those trading partners, led to the decline of merchant guilds in the 16th century. This occurred first in coastal cities that were early adopters of printing technology.

Céline Carrère, Marcelo Olarreaga, Damian Raess, 15 December 2017

Protecting workers through the inclusion of labour clauses in trade agreements has become more common since the first such causes were included in NAFTA, but some argue that by increasing labour costs in developing countries, they represent a form of protectionism. This column uses new data to argue that there is no evidence for adverse effects on trade from labour clauses. When such clauses are strong, and if they emphasise cooperation in their implementation, they have a positive effect on the commercial interests of developing countries.



CEPR Policy Research