Randolph Bruno, Nauro Campos, Saul Estrin, 17 July 2021

Do different economic integration arrangements vary in terms of their capacity to attract foreign direct investment? This column uses a structural gravity framework on annual bilateral FDI data for 142 countries between 1985 and 2018 to revisit this question. It finds that deep integration in the form of EU membership increases FDI by about 60% from outside the EU and by about 50% from within the EU. The effect of EU membership on FDI appears to be significantly larger than that from the less deep integration arrangements (EFTA, NAFTA, or MERCOSUR), with the Single Market the cornerstone of this differential impact. 

Alessandro Antimiani, Lucian Cernat, 24 June 2021

Many believe that the global trading system could offer little more to least developed countries beyond the various unilateral preferential schemes currently in place. This column argues that there is room for new multilateral initiatives to strengthen the participation of these countries in global value chains. It advocates for a new ‘GVCs for LDCs’ global preferential scheme based on least developed countries’ value added, thereby covering exports by these countries along the entire supply chain. Estimates suggest that such a scheme would increase global trade, improve least developed countries’ value added, and promote further value chain integration between these and other developing countries.

Ian Goldin, Pantelis Koutroumpis, François Lafond, Julian Winkler, 31 May 2021

Labour productivity is a key determinant in improving living standards. But in recent years, productivity has stagnated, if not declined, in many countries around the world. This column re-evaluates the various reasons as to why this might be, applying three criteria to the existing explanations for the slowdown. It finds that the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from mismeasurement to changes in trade patterns.

Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Constantinos Syropoulos, Erdal Yalcin, Yoto Yotov, 18 May 2021

While the world experienced a golden age of international economic integration in the 1990s and the 2000s, in the more recent past there has been an emergence of interstate political conflicts, political polarisation, and extensive use of coercive sanctions intended to limit the international movement of goods, assets, and people. This column presents findings from the newly updated Global Sanctions Data Base, which now includes the years of the Trump presidency and provides a more comprehensive coverage of 1,101 sanction cases in the years from 1950 to 2019.

Jan I. Haaland, Ian Wooton, 14 May 2021

The changes in the UK’s trading relationship with the EU are likely to have widespread effects, many of which are yet to be understood in full. This column introduces the issue of compliance with rules of origin requirements within free trade agreements. The authors argue that complying with these rules can present firms with additional production costs that would not have been present had the UK remained a part of the EU.

Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Nikolaus Wolf, 02 May 2021

The history of globalisation is usually told in two parts, separated not only by two world wars but also by changes in technology, institutions, and economic logic. This column reconsiders that narrative. Using detailed new evidence on Germany’s foreign trading practices from 1800 to 1913 (the ‘first’ globalisation), it finds that most growth took place along the extensive margin, while 25–30% of trade was intra-industry. If the first globalisation saw substantial heterogeneity within countries and industries, it may be time to re-think the ‘classical’ versus ‘new’ trade paradigm. 

Petros C. Mavroidis, André Sapir, 28 April 2021

China’s ascension to the WTO followed years of negotiations with the incumbent members and was hailed at the time as a victory for the liberal paradigm – part of the ‘end of history’. But today frictions remain. This first in a series of three columns presents the build-up to China joining the multilateral trade agreement, arguing that expectations for its subsequent behaviour were misguided from the off.

Assaf Razin, 23 April 2021

Concerns associated with the Covid-19 pandemic have led to new rationales of protectionism, with renewed emphasis on domestic production and sourcing. This column compares the current economic crisis brought on by the pandemic to previous major economic crises and examines what this could mean for the future of various aspects of globalisation.

Magnus Lodefalk, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Carl Alm, 27 April 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic rise in protectionism and restrictions around the world. This column sheds light on the role migration can play in restoring globalisation in the wake of COVID-19. It draws upon evidence from macro-, sub-national, and micro-level research to demonstrate that migration has the potential to promote economic recovery through facilitating foreign trade, investment, and offshoring. The findings carry implications not only for physical migration, but also for whether or not recent technological advances may enable foreign-based online workers to promote globalisation.

Samuel Delpeuch, Etienne Fize, Philippe Martin, 12 February 2021

How much can trade imbalances account for the rise in protectionism of the past ten years? This column reveals that both bilateral and multilateral trade imbalances are strong predictors of protectionist attacks, partly – but not entirely – driven by the US and the Trump years. Moreover, countries with more expansionary fiscal policies react to the ensuing trade imbalance by a more protectionist trade policy. A transatlantic gap in the fiscal response to the COVID crisis may therefore pave the way to renewed trade tensions.

Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, 26 January 2021

Following the Brexit referendum five years ago, firms in the UK and also those in the EU and other countries operated in an environment with increased uncertainty over future trade policies. This column presents evidence of the detrimental effects of this uncertainty on trade in the UK before any changes to trade policy had taken place. Studying the period after the Conservative Party won the general election in May 2015 until just after the Brexit referendum in June 2016, it finds that an increasing probability of Brexit significantly reduced UK export values and product entry, while increasing product exit.

Alvaro Espitia, Aaditya Mattoo, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Deborah Winkler, 18 January 2021

As COVID-19 spread across countries, many saw global value chains as transmitters of shocks. Using disaggregated export data for multiple countries, this column shows that participation in global value chains increased exporters’ vulnerability to foreign shocks, but it also reduced vulnerability to domestic shocks. Sourcing inputs from abroad is an example of beneficial diversification through trade when domestic production is disrupted. This evidence corroborates the view that nationalising value chains is not the way to improve resilience. 

Felix Friedt, 17 January 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused one of the most severe contractions in international trade since the Great Trade Collapse, leading to comparisons between the two episodes. While the Great Trade Collapse has been clearly linked to the collapse in international demand, this column argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to impact trade through multiple transmission channels, highlighting the role of global value chains in the transmission. Commercial policy responses to bolster the global economy must, therefore, deviate from demand-centred instruments and consider the dependence on and resilience of global value chains to address the triple pandemic effect.

Adnan Seric, Holger Görg, Wan-Hsin Liu, Michael Windisch, 07 January 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of the global trade network underpinning global value chains. Initial disruptions in the supply chains for key medical goods due to surges in demand and newly erected trade barriers have prompted policymakers around the world to question their country’s reliance on foreign suppliers and international production networks. This column takes a closer look at China’s post-pandemic recovery and argues that its response may hold clues to the future of global value chains.

James Anderson, Yoto Yotov, 20 December 2020

The gravity equation of international trade raises several empirical puzzles relating to the decreasing impact of distance, the declining trade-related costs of bilateral trade, and the estimation of trade elasticities. This column introduces a new, ‘short-run gravity’ model which simultaneously resolves all three of the above-mentioned puzzles. The model estimates a 14% decline in the distance elasticity and shows that capacity reallocation raised world manufacturing trade by 75% between 1998 and 2006. Finally, an estimated structural parameter implies that the short-tun trade elasticity is about one-fourth of its long-run counterpart. 

Jie Bai, Maggie Chen, Jin Liu, Daniel Yi Xu, 15 December 2020

Global e-commerce platforms present new export opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises in developing countries by significantly lowering the entry barriers of exporting. This column shows, however, that the lack of market selection can lead to severe congestion in consumers' search process and, when firms' intrinsic quality is not perfectly observed, hinder market allocation towards better firms. Policies aimed at alleviating information frictions and reducing the number of firms can help to improve allocative efficiency and raise consumer welfare.

Christine Arriola, Przemyslaw Kowalski, Frank van Tongeren, 15 November 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has left in its wake a global economy damaged beyond what was thought possible a decade ago. The globalised nature of the 21st century global economy is a key component in terms of the dynamics, and effects, of the virus. This column presents an analysis of the importance of global value chains, both during the pandemic and throughout the recovery process. The results of the study suggest that increased localisation could do more harm than good, and that the international network of interconnected supply chains remains key to producing essential goods and services.

Taylor Jaworski, Carl Kitchens, Sergey Nigai, 01 November 2020

The interaction between domestic transportation networks, market integration, and globalisation is important for understanding the value of domestic infrastructure investment and weighing these against the substantial costs of building and maintaining domestic roads. Using an endogenous specification of domestic and international trade costs that takes into account the availability of the road network and congestion levels, this column estimates that the total value of the entire US highway system was $619 billion in 2012 dollars, which accounts for 3.9% of US aggregate GDP in 2012. The results suggest that decisions on how much to invest in domestic infrastructure should be made in conjunction with considering how improvements in the domestic transportation networks would affect domestic and international trade as well as distributional consequences for different locations within a country.

Arnaud Mehl, Martin Schmitz, Cédric Tille, 29 September 2020

The geographical distance between two countries has a substantial impact on their economic relationship, affecting trade, foreign direct investment, and international banking linkages. Using data from the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, this column demonstrates that the financial linkages between countries located far from one another experience more volatility during crises than those between countries that are closer together. Policymakers concerned about their country’s exposure to global cycles should focus not only on their primary trading partners, but also on trade flows with more distant partners.

Guillaume Vuillemey, 27 September 2020

The maritime shipping industry has been the backbone of globalisation, carrying 80% to 90% of global trade flows. This column shows that over the past four decades, shipping firms are being systematically structured to evade corporate responsibilities. Potential tort liabilities, for example in case of an oil spill, are evaded by registering each ship in a different subsidiary; regulatory standards are evaded by using flags of convenience; and long-term responsibilities related to ship recycling are evaded using so-called last-voyage flags.

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