Daniel Levy, Tamir Mayer, Alon Raviv, 01 April 2020

Economists and finance scholars faced harsh criticism for failing to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis. This column presents evidence from textual analyses of 14,270 working papers published between 1999–2016 that is consistent with this criticism. However, as soon as the crisis unravelled, economists appeared to dramatically increase their efforts in studying and understanding the crisis, its causes and its consequences.

Masayuki Morikawa, 10 February 2020

Although long-term macroeconomic forecasts substantially affect the sustainability of government debt and the social security system, they cannot avoid significant uncertainty. This column assesses whether academic researchers in economics make accurate long-term growth forecasts, comparing ten-year growth forecasts made by Japanese economists in 2006–2007 with the realised figures. Even excluding the years affected by the Global Crisis, the results show that forecasts tend to be biased upwards and involve significant uncertainty, even for economics researchers specialising in macroeconomics or economic growth.

Andrew Mold, 24 October 2010

Developing countries have enjoyed strong economic performance over the past decade – often growing twice as fast as OECD economies. This column asks whether developing countries will continue to outpace rich countries over the coming two decades. Updating Angus Maddison’s famous projections, it forecasts a world starkly different from today’s. The worlds’ poor countries will account for nearly 70% of global GDP in 2030.

CEPR Policy Research