Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam, Tarun Ramadorai, 17 January 2019

Although economic agents should discern signals from noise when drawing from experience, recent evidence suggests decision-making can be based on both noise and signal components. This column uses a natural experiment of IPO lotteries in India to show that randomised gains cause winning investors to increase applications to future IPOs and substantially increase portfolio trading volume in non-IPO stocks relative to lottery losers. Investors appear to draw inferences about their skill from noise. 

Craig Doidge, George Karolyi, René Stulz, 03 August 2011

Over the past two decades, there has been a dramatic change in initial public offering (IPO) activity around the world. The importance of IPOs in the US relative to the world has not kept up with the economic importance of the US. This column analyses nearly 30,000 IPOs from almost 90 countries between 1990 and 2007 to examine why this might be.

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