Refet Gürkaynak, Philippe Weil, 24 August 2017

This column presents the first bi-annual report from CEPR’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee on the state of the Eurozone business cycle. The main findings are that the Eurozone expansion is continuing slowly, but is creating employment at a rapid pace; the recovery is commensurate with the US recovery once the Eurozone’s double-dip sovereign debt recession is factored in; and the heterogeneity in the pace of recovery of individual member countries is driven by the heterogeneity in their recessions.

John Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin, Marco Terrones, 14 September 2011

There are concerns that the recent sharp drop in equity prices in the advanced economies may signal a rise in the risk of a double-dip recession. This column examines the performance of equity prices as predictors of new recessions in the G7 economies. The findings suggest that equity prices are useful predictors of recessions in most of these countries. Recent drops in equity prices suggest that the probability of a double-dip recession in France, the UK, and the US has increased substantially.

Nicholas Bloom, 26 August 2011

Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University talks to Viv Davies about the evidence for a double-dip recession as a result of market uncertainties. They discuss market signals and the Eurozone crisis, and how the US and Europe could resolve its debt problems. Bloom maintains that healthcare reform in the US and the retirement age in Europe are key. The interview was recorded on 23 August 2011. [Also read the transcript]

Nicholas Bloom, 22 August 2011

UPDATED: The potentially explosive combination of Eurozone debt contagion, vulnerable banking systems, and European and American political paralysis has pushed stock-market volatility to levels nearly as bad as the days following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. Nobody knows what happens next. This column reviews research on 16 previous shocks and concludes that today’s uncertainty shock will create a short, sharp contraction in late 2011 of about 1% with a rebound coming in spring 2012.



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