With the large Syriza victory in Greece, thoughts turn to forthcoming debt restructuring talks. This column argues that Greece is unlikely to get a large restructuring. Using a Rubinstein bargain approach to generate a back-of-the-envelope estimate, Greece would get some breathing room but not much. Rather than running a structural primary surplus of the order of 5% of potential output, as envisaged in the IMF projection, Greece could get away with a number close to 3.75%.
Lucas Papademos, 26 October 2011
Newly named Greek PM Lucas Papademos wrote this Vox column on 26 October 2011 on the Greek debt problem. He argues that the most effective and prudent way to reduce Greece’s debt burden is to implement the July agreement, reinforced by ‘firewalls’ to protect financial institutions and avoid contagion. Both require a substantial increase in EFSF ‘firepower’. Bank recapitalisation is necessary, but not sufficient.
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