Ralph De Haas, 15 June 2018

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, participating countries committed to trying to limit the increase in the global temperature to no more than 2 degrees, requiring a major transition in the way we produce products and services. Ralph de Haas explains his research on how this Green Transition can be financed, and whether certain types of finance - in particular stock vs. credit markets - are better suited to achieving 'greener growth'. This video was recorded at CEPR's Third Annual Spring Symposium.

Ashoka Mody, 01 April 2018

Gonçalo Faria, Fabio Verona, 09 May 2018

The slope of the yield curve is of interest to policymakers and market participants alike. But despite being a good in-sample predictor of the equity risk premium, it performs rather poorly out-of-sample. This column finds that the low-frequency component of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity risk premium predictor for several forecasting horizons. This finding adds to recent empirical evidence that the level and price of aggregate risk in equity markets are strongly linked to low-frequency economic fluctuations.

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci, 24 April 2018

During 2016-17, market analysts and policymakers grappled with the puzzling coexistence of subdued market volatility and heightened policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. The rise in world growth expectations can explain some but by no means all of the decline in market volatility during this period. This column argues that excess optimism about future growth prospects might have fuelled the decline in volatility. This would imply that gradual unwinding of such expectations could bring more bursts of market volatility, as we have begun to witness since the start of 2018.

Tobias Adrian, Michael J. Fleming, Or Shachar, 14 September 2017

The potential adverse effects of regulation on market liquidity in the post-crisis period continue to receive significant attention. This column shows that dealer balance sheets have continued to stagnate and that various measures point to less abundant funding liquidity. Nonetheless, there is little evidence of a wide-spread deterioration in market liquidity. Liquidity remained resilient even during stress events like the 2013 ‘temper tantrum’.

George Dotsis, 10 September 2017

Option trading has grown phenomenally in the last 40 years, but option markets have existed since the early 17th century. This column reviews an option trading manual written by a London trader in 1906. It shows that traders in the 19th century developed sophisticated techniques for determining the prices of short-term calls and puts. They also priced at-the-money-forward straddles the same way they are priced today.

Konstantin Platonov, 25 August 2017

Unemployment rates rise during a financial crisis. In this video, Konstantin Platonov underlines the important link between pessismism about the financial market and the real economy. This video was recorded in July 2017 at a macroeconomics conference organised by the Bank of England.

Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, 03 November 2016

Over the past two years, a significant disinflationary impulse has dampened nominal activity around the world. As this disinflationary impulse fades, however, both nominal and real growth should normalise. Indeed, as this column highlights, the latest signs show inflation and inflation expectations rising, profits stabilising, and capital expenditure inching up.

Alex Edmans, Clifford Holderness, 15 September 2016

The separation of ownership and control for public firms may lead to fully dispersed ownership where no shareholder has an incentive to engage in governance. This column argues that blockholders (owners of large stakes) play a critical role in long-term governance, partly through a credible threat to sell their stakes. This threat is undermined by well-intentioned policy moves to create holding-period incentives and requirements. If they succeed, these policies will make exit less likely and blockholders will lose a method to discipline managers.

Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam, Tarun Ramadorai, 17 July 2016

Evidence of the ‘endowment effect’ – ownership of an asset changing one’s valuation of it – runs counter to standard microeconomic theory. This column uses evidence from the Indian stock market’s random allocation of shares in IPOs to show that endowment effects do occur in even outside of controlled experiments, and correlate highly with measures of market experience. This evidence suggests that agents’ inertial behaviour explains endowment effects better than standard explanations.

Christopher Woolard, Kevin James, Joseph Stiglitz, Luigi Zingales, Matteo Aquilina , John Kay, Eric Budish, Thom Wetzer, 23 June 2016

Financial markets account for a large sector of the economy, and understanding their effectiveness is of critical importance. In this video, participants including Joseph Stiglitz, Financial Times columnist John Kay, and Luigi Zingales discuss new approaches to the issue. In order for financial markets to work for our society, broad consensus is needed. This video was recorded in February 2016 at the “Understanding Financial Markets Effectiveness: New Approaches” Conference jointly organized by the FCA and the Systemic Risk Centre at LSE.

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 24 June 2016

Brexit creates new opportunities and new risks for the British and EU financial markets. Both could benefit, but a more likely outcome is a fall in the quality of financial regulations, more inefficiency, more protectionism, and more systemic risk.

Julia Tanndal, Daniel Waldenström, 13 April 2016

Financial deregulation in the US has been shown to be associated with rising income inequality over the past four decades. This column looks at the income effects of financial deregulation in the UK and Japan during the 1980s and 1990s. As in the US, deregulation substantially increased the shares of income going to the very top of the distribution. These findings highlight the importance of financial markets in the evolution of income inequality in society. 

John Armour, Colin Mayer, Andrea Polo, 24 March 2016

Following the Global Crisis, regulators around the world have shown a greater commitment to investigating and sanctioning corporate wrongdoers. This column argues that fines are only one (surprisingly small) component of the overall sanctions available to regulators. Reputational sanctions are, for some categories of misconduct, far more potent than direct penalties.

Roel Beetsma, Siert Vos, 23 February 2016

There is a broad consensus that banks and insurance companies may contribute to systemic risk in the financial system. For other financial market institutions, it is less clear-cut. This column examines the resilience of pension funds to severe shocks. While the evidence indicates that they are of low systematic importance, policy trends that apply to all financial players may undermine this. Specifically, risk-based solvency requirements carry the risk of homogenising the behaviour of all players, potentially amplifying shocks and destabilising markets.

Nils Herger, Steve McCorriston, 31 January 2016

A key feature of globalisation over the last three decades has been the wave-like growth of foreign direct investment. This column shows that conglomerate cross-border acquisitions, which are closely associated with mispricing in financial markets, play a significant role in explaining these developments.

Joshua Aizenman, 03 January 2016

The Global Crisis renewed debate on the benefits and limitations of coordinating international macro policies. This column highlights the rare conditions that lead to international cooperation, along with the potential benefits for the global economy. In normal times, deeper macro cooperation among countries is associated with welfare gains of a second-order magnitude, making the odds of cooperation low. When bad tail events induce imminent and correlated threats of destabilised financial markets, the perceived losses have a first-order magnitude. The apprehension of these losses in times of peril may elicit rare and beneficial macro cooperation.

George Karolyi, David Ng, Eswar Prasad, 12 December 2015

Few economists understate the importance of emerging market economies in terms of world GDP and global growth prospects. This column asks where the future of emerging markets’ investments lie. Where investors have focused in the past and institutional path dependency are important determinants of emerging markets’ allocation of international investment portfolios. This has implications for the geographical distribution of emerging markets’ portfolio investments, a force to reckon with in international financial markets.

Jiangtao Fu, Daichi Shimamoto, Yasuyuki Todo, 01 December 2015

It has been widely argued that firms obtain loans with relaxed terms if they are politically connected. This column presents evidence from Indonesia that firms whose owners or directors have a personal relationship with a politician are more likely to have their loans approved by state-owned banks, and are more likely to receive the full amount applied for. However, the labour productivity of such firms is on average lower. This suggests that in some cases, politically connected lending may distort the efficiency of resource allocation and be detrimental to economic development.

Yves Zenou, 08 January 2015

Targeting key players in a network can have important effects due to multipliers arising from peer effects. This column argues that this is particularly true for crime –the success in reducing crime in Chicago was due to the targeting of 400 key players rather than spending resources on more general targets. Key-player policies in crime, education, R&D networks, financial networks, and diffusion of microfinance outperform other policies such as targeting the most active agents in a network.

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