Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, Dalibor Stevanovic, 29 September 2020

Forecasting the recession and recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is of substantial policy interest. The pandemic shock shares both similarities and differences with previous crises, such as the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This column evaluates the ability of different forecasting and nowcasting approaches to predict the COVID-19 economic shock and forecast the potential recovery path. It shows that adjusting for forecasting errors made during the financial crisis of 2007-2009 better aligns the COVID forecasts with observed data. The results suggest a slow recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, lasting several years.

Lucrezia Reichlin, Domenico Giannone, Jasper McMahon, Saverio Simonelli, 29 March 2013

The Eurozone and US business cycles seems to have decoupled, but is Germany on the US or Eurozone side of the divide? This column presents recent results from the Now-Casting model on whether this US-Eurozone decoupling also applies to Germany. If this is right, the German stock market – which seems to predict Germany’s convergence to the US path – is due for a correction.

Máximo Camacho, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Pilar Poncela, 03 April 2012

This column develops an early warning system to capture the trembling of the Eurozone economy before anyone else notices it, as seismologists do with earthquakes. It shows that the latest forecast suggests reductions in recession probabilities and that the crisis resolution mechanism could be behind this increase in confidence. Therefore, it seems that the Eurozone faced a short-lived double-dip recession.

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