Stephen Byrne, Jonathan Rice, 19 June 2018

While the effect of Brexit on trade between the UK and the remaining EU member states has received considerable attention, to date little work has considered the issue of non-tariff barriers. This column explores how increased documentary compliance and border delays will affect EU members’ exports to the UK. Time-sensitive goods are found to be most at risk of suffering from increases in non-tariff barriers. Based on current trade composition, Latvia, Ireland, and Denmark are the trading partners that will be most affected.

Guntram Wolff, 04 May 2018

When thinking about what will determine the prosperity and well-being of citizens living in the euro area, five issues are central. This column, part of VoxEU's Euro Area Reform debate, argues that the important CEPR Policy Insight by a team of French and German economists makes an important contribution to two of them, but leaves aside some of the most crucial ones: European public goods, a proper fiscal stance and major national reforms. It also argues that its compromise on sovereign debt appears unbalanced.

Marco Buti, Reuben Borg, 04 May 2018

It is ten years since the crisis started and Europe is at the cusp of new and different challenges. This column presents the European Commission's spring forecast and the challenges ahead that policymakers should address. The baseline scenario for the European economy over the next two years is one of continued expansion. However, the assessment of risks to the forecast has changed, and the nuances have become more critical. Domestic upside risks have broadly diminished and downside risks to the global outlook have increased significantly in both the short and the medium term.

Ramon Marimon, Thomas Cooley, 01 May 2018

The Horizon 2020 ADEMU project has aimed to reassess the fiscal and monetary framework of the Economic and Monetary Union in the wake of the euro crisis. This column introduces a new VoxEU ebook which presents the main findings from the project, including the lessons we can extract from the crisis and the policy response. It also outlines the two main proposals arising from the project relating to the European Stability Fund and a European Unemployment Insurance System.

Marco Buti, Gabriele Giudice, José Leandro, 25 April 2018

The debate on deepening EMU is entering a critical stage. This column, contributing to VoxEU's Euro Area Reform debate argues that while the proposals in a recent CEPR Policy Insight are both timely and attractive, the mix seems unbalanced and carries significant risks. The focus of the proposals on reducing fiscal risks could lead to financial distress, ultimately requiring more, not fewer, rescues.

Ashoka Mody, 25 April 2018

Since Emmanuel Macron’s election as French president in May 2017, hope has lingered that a mythical friendship between France and Germany will help complete the gaps in the euro area architecture. As this column discusses, however, history provides no basis for such an expectation. National interests, always central to the decision calculus, have diverged even further. French leaders have a pressing task at hand: they need to rejuvenate their own economy and build domestic social cohesion. This may take a generation or more. 

Sebastian Dullien, 11 April 2018

The recently published CEPR Policy Insight by a team of French and German economists proposes a package of reforms to make progress on risk sharing and risk reduction in the euro area. This column, which forms part of VoxEU's Euro Area Reform debate, argues that while many of the package’s elements make sense, it leaves too many questions open and fails to address a number of central problems of EMU architecture.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, 09 April 2018

A team of French and German economists recently proposed on this site a series of reforms to strengthen the euro area's institutional framework. This column, which joins VoxEU's Euro Area Reform debate, argues that while the proposals  form a useful basis for discussion, they are nevertheless subject to important shortcomings.

Tolga Aksoy, Paolo Manasse, 23 March 2018

After 2008, labour markets in the euro area responded differently to the recessions and subsequent labour market reforms. This column uses data from 19 countries to show that labour and product market reforms speeded up the recovery from recession, but also reduced the resilience of employment to shocks. Because the resilience effect occurs first, deep reforms risk losing public support.

Nauro Campos, Corrado Macchiarelli, 12 March 2018

The concepts of core and periphery remain ubiquitous and elusive in the European integration debate. This column documents the formation and evolution of a core and periphery in EMU, unearthing an increasingly integrated core, an entrenched periphery, and a third set of countries marked by in-and-out movements.  Using a novel measure to capture the probability of a country being classified as peripheral, it reveals that this probability positively correlates with euro membership and flexible product market regulations.

Philip Lane, Sam Langfield, 28 February 2018

The euro area’s macro-financial framework is incomplete and fragile. This column highlights how a market for sovereign bond-backed securities could help to enhance financial stability by providing automatic stabilisation. Drawing on a recent feasibility study published by a High-Level Task Force of the European Systemic Risk Board, it outlines how to pave the way for market development by removing regulatory obstacles.

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This online seminar will argue that market discipline and risk sharing should be viewed as complementary pillars of the euro area financial architecture, rather than as substitutes. Achieving this complementarity, however, is not easy. It calls for stabilisation and insurance mechanisms that are both effective and cannot give rise to permanent transfers. And it requires a reformed institutional framework. 

Against this background, the seminar will present and discuss the recent Euro Area reform proposal formulated in a CEPR Policy Insight by a group of independent French and German economists with differing views and political sensitivities but a shared conviction that the current deadlock must be overcome.

Michele Lanotte, Pietro Tommasino, 05 February 2018

Late last year, the Basel Committee decided to maintain the status quo regarding regulation of banks’ sovereign debt holdings. This column summarises the reasons to be cautious of stricter regulation of banks’ sovereign exposures. Theory and experience suggest small net benefits from such a reform, with possible increases in tail risks. The best instrument to tackle the problem is not microprudential regulation, but sounder public finances and the completion of the banking union.

Zsofia Doeme, Stefan Kerbl, 24 January 2018

Risk weights define each bank's minimum capital requirements, but many doubt the comparability of the risk weights that banks report. This column quantifies the variability of these weights across banks, and finds that the country where a bank is headquartered creates statistically significant and economically important differences. Model output floors, as recently agreed upon by the Basel Committee, would reduce this unintended risk weight heterogeneity.

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Markus K Brunnermeier, Henrik Enderlein, Emmanuel Farhi, Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Hélène Rey, Isabel Schnabel, Nicolas Véron, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 17 January 2018

The euro area continues to suffer from critical weaknesses that are the result of a poorly designed fiscal and financial architecture, but its members are divided on how to address the problems. This column proposes six reforms which, if delivered as a package, would improve the euro area’s financial stability, political cohesion, and potential for delivering prosperity to its citizens, all while addressing the priorities and concerns of participating countries.

Harald Uhlig, 08 October 2010

CEPR’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced that the recession that began in the first quarter of 2008 came to an end in the second quarter of 2009. Harald Uhlig of the University of Chicago, who chairs the committee, talks to Romesh Vaitilingam about how this recession compares with previous recessions and with the US recession, and about the components of GDP that are driving recovery. The interview was recorded in a telephone press conference on 4 October 2010.

Guillermo de la Dehesa, 16 July 2008

The current credit crisis should be both a squeeze and a crunch, but it seems to have been neither in the euro area. This column explains why credit may become costlier or scarcer under current conditions and explores how European financial entities seem to be defying the negative news.

Riccardo Cristadoro, Giovanni Veronese, 29 October 2007

Real-time policy-making requires real-time monitoring. The recent turmoil in international financial markets, for example, raised concerns that it would dampen euro-area growth prospects. Surveys of the euro-area in August and September revealed that business expectations had indeed deteriorated. Interpreting such data in real time is notoriously difficult. Statistical techniques provide a systematic and more reliable means of extracting real-time indicators from current data: “€-coin”, a monthly indicator published by the Banca d'Italia and CEPR, is a useful tool to monitor the evolution of the euro-area growth as the financial turmoil unfolds.

Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Refet Gürkaynak, Eric Swanson, 17 September 2007

The authors of DP6456 focus on the extent to which monetary union has led to the integration of financial markets across the euro area, and in particular investigate the effects of two dimensions: the unification of bond markets, and the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations.

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