Neil Gandal, Matan Yonas, Michal Feldman, Ady Pauzner, Avraham Tabbach, 13 July 2020

COVID-19 deaths rates vary widely across European countries, from as low as 5 deaths per million in Slovakia to as high as 760 deaths per million in Belgium (as of May 13), and similar differences exist across US states. This column uses data on 32 in Europe and the 50 US states to show that the COVID -19 death rate is higher in countries and states with more long-term care beds. This provides evidence that living in long-term care facilities is a significant risk factor for death from COVID-19, and suggests that countries should adopt policies to protect their older populations living in such facilities before the second wave (likely) arrives. 

Charles Goodhart, Philipp Erfurth, 04 November 2014

Most of the world is now at the point where the support ratio is becoming adverse, and the growth of the global workforce is slowing. This column argues that these changes will have profound and negative effects on economic growth. This implies that negative real interest rates are not the new normal, but rather an extreme artefact of a series of trends, several of which are coming to an end. By 2025, real interest rates should have returned to their historical equilibrium value of around 2.5–3%.


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