Laura Alfaro, Manuel García Santana, Enrique Moral-Benito, 04 July 2018

Propagation through buyer-seller interactions may amplify the aggregate impact of bank lending shocks on real activity. This column presents insights from estimating the direct and indirect effects of exogenous credit supply shocks in Spain between 2002 and 2013. Both direct and indirect effects of bank credit shocks had sizable effects on investment and output throughout the period. Trade credit extended by suppliers and price adjustments both appear to explain downstream propagation of financial shocks.

Nauro Campos, Corrado Macchiarelli, 19 October 2016

Explanations for the Eurozone Crisis rely on the notion of cross-country asymmetries. The core-periphery pattern to the EU was first established by Bayoumi and Eichengreen in 1993, prior to the Eurozone. This column replicates their approach to explore whether the euro has strengthened or weakened this pattern. A new ‘coreness index’ indicates that the core-periphery pattern has weakened, and that a new, smaller periphery has emerged.

Máximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 01 December 2015

Today's monetary policy effectiveness depends on expectations of future monetary policy. Shocks affect such expectations, but the nature of the shock matters. This column presents evidence that negative demand shocks lead markets to expect looser policy in the short run. Negative supply shocks lead to expectations of looser policy in the medium to long run. Unexpected expansions – from either the supply or demand side – have no significant influence on markets' expectations of future monetary policy.

Samya Beidas-Strom, Andrea Pescatori, 20 December 2014

The recent dramatic fall in oil prices has renewed the interest in the importance of shocks in the oil price volatility. This column presents results from new research on the role of shocks and speculation on oil prices. The authors find that when speculation is short in duration, it has the weakest impact on oil prices and demand shocks have the largest. However, when speculation is allowed to have short- and long-term effects, it is the main contributor to the volatility of oil prices.

Events

CEPR Policy Research