Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta, 18 January 2015

Not only is world trade lower than its pre-Crisis level, but it is also growing slower than GDP. This column examines the relationship between trade and GDP in the last four decades. The findings indicate that roughly half of the slowdown is driven by structural rather than cyclical factors. Trade itself has become less responsive to GDP in recent years. In particular, supply chains are maturing after years of rapid expansion.

CEPR Policy Research