Nicholas Crafts, 01 August 2016

Becoming a member of the EU had positive effects on UK’s economy. In this video, Nick Crafts suggests that leaving the EU will very probably have a negative effect on UK GDP, but history does not tell us how strong this effect will be. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Morgan Kelly, Cormac Ó Gráda, 28 March 2015

The Little Ice Age is generally seen as a major event in European history. Analysing a variety of recent weather reconstructions, this column finds that European weather appears constant from the Middle Ages until 1900, and that events like the freezing of the Thames and the disappearance of English vineyards have simpler explanations than changing climate. It appears instead that the European Little Ice Age is a statistical artefact, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing what turn out to be white noise data prior to analysis gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillation – a Slutsky Effect.

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